All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
55-60mm
YesNo
60mm+
YesNo
50-55mm
YesNo
45-50mm
YesNo
35-40mm
YesNo
40-45mm
YesNo
30-35mm
YesNo
<30mm
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 00:53 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 15, the accumulated precipitation in Seoul is approximately 18.4mm (driven mainly by ~12.8mm on March 5). Forecasts indicate light rain on March 15 and a rain event on March 19. Considering the climatology for late March, an additional 10-25mm is the most probable outcome, placing the final total likely in the 30-40mm range. The current market prices sum to >280%, indicating extreme inefficiency and illiquidity.
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Exotics
This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the total precipitation for a specific month is a relatively niche market, less mainstream than sports or political elections. It falls under 'data derivatives' created for specific data points; slightly dry for the general public but not absurd.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence in market pricing mechanics. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is ~2.83, far exceeding the theoretical limit of 1.00, indicating the market fails to reflect mutually exclusive probabilities. fundamentally, while the favorite '35-40mm' (38.5c) is plausible, the '<30mm' and '30-35mm' brackets are competitively likely given the current 18mm baseline, yet the market pricing is structurally broken due to the sum-greater-than-100 anomaly.
