All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Josh Shapiro
YesNo
Gretchen Whitmer
YesNo
Gavin Newsom
YesNo
Donald Trump
YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
YesNo
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
YesNo
Kamala Harris
YesNo
Elon Musk
YesNo
Ivanka Trump
YesNo
Jamie Dimon
YesNo
JD Vance
YesNo
Thomas Massie
YesNo
Jon Ossoff
YesNo
Tulsi Gabbard
YesNo
Marco Rubio
YesNo
James Talarico
YesNo
Greg Abbott
YesNo
Donald Trump Jr.
YesNo
Ro Khanna
YesNo
Tim Walz
YesNo
Eric Trump
YesNo
Kim Kardashian
YesNo
Stephen Smith
YesNo
JB Pritzker
YesNo
Zohran Mamdani
YesNo
Ron DeSantis
YesNo
LeBron James
YesNo
Andy Beshear
YesNo
Vivek Ramaswamy
YesNo
Michelle Obama
YesNo
Glenn Youngkin
YesNo
Tucker Carlson
YesNo
Pete Buttigieg
YesNo
Wes Moore
YesNo
Nikki Haley
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. **GOP Side**: JD Vance (21.05c) sees a slight price recovery; as the presumptive VP/heir apparent, his fundamentals remain strongest, holding FV at 22c. Marco Rubio (11.85c) appears to stabilize, but relative to the actual difficulty of securing the 2028 nomination over Vance, he remains slightly expensive; FV adjusted to 11c. Donald Trump is valued at 0 due to term limits (22nd Amendment). Elon Musk is valued at 0 due to natural-born citizenship requirements.
2. **Democrat Side**: Gavin Newsom (17.95c) retains the highest 'name recognition premium,' but given stiff intra-party competition (Shapiro, Whitmer), his 18c price is rich; maintaining FV at 15c. Jon Ossoff (3.05c) continues his momentum; as a Senator from a key swing state (GA), his youth and geography are being repriced, justifying a 4c FV. Josh Shapiro (2.55c) and Gretchen Whitmer (1.05c) remain structurally undervalued 'value buys' given their general election viability as swing-state governors.
3. **Macro**: The market is transitioning from pure 'celebrity bets' (Newsom, Rubio) to 'strategic bets' (Ossoff, Shapiro). Premiums on non-political figures (The Rock, LeBron) and ineligible candidates (Trump, Musk) should be completely discounted.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Bitcoin
S&P 500
The outcome of the US Presidential Election has a massive, structural impact on global financial markets. Candidates' differing policies on taxation, trade, regulation, and foreign affairs directly reshape the macroeconomic environment. For instance, a win by a candidate like JD Vance or Ron DeSantis might continue trade protectionism, boosting inflation expectations and bond yields, while a Democratic winner might focus on social spending. If a 'black swan' candidate (like Musk, despite low probability) were to win, the market shock would be immeasurable. Even a standard partisan contest is a core driver for the next four years of market trends, warranting an extreme impact score.
Divergence
There is a significant logical divergence, primarily regarding constitutional eligibility. The market prices Donald Trump (2.45c) and Elon Musk (1.25c) with non-zero probabilities, which is legally impossible (22nd Amendment term limits; natural-born citizen clause for Musk). Mainstream political analysis excludes these figures entirely. Additionally, the market premium on Newsom is significantly higher than mainstream analysts' assessment of his general election viability, who favor swing-state governors like Shapiro or Whitmer.
