Presidential Election Winner 2028
Elections|$562.2m Vol|
time919 days 3 hrs

Presidential Election Winner 2028 - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 16:51
Top Undervalued
+7.1¢
Gretchen Whitmer(Yes)
+5.8¢
Josh Shapiro(Yes)
+3.2¢
Donald Trump(No)

Presidential Election Winner 2028 AI analysis: • +7.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
1. GOP: JD Vance (22c) and Marco Rubio (11c) continue to lead, representing the populist right and t...
🔓 Log in to see more

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

View More
Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?
Culture|$215.3k Vol|
time1 days 19 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
40-64(Yes)
+2.5¢
65-89(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Elon Musk's daily posting volume on X (excluding standard replies) typically hovers around 20 to 30 ...
🔓 Log in to see more
Rule Risk
The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.
Movers
Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price continued to rise from 43.5c to 65.5c, while the '65-89' option fell further from 38c to 16.5c. This occurred as the tracking period was about to start, and the market adjusted expectations based on his latest activity levels, solidifying the belief in a moderate posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects an initial shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.
AI Analysis
Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$29.8k Vol|
time16 days 3 hrs

Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
Ken McFeeters(Yes)
+0.1¢
Tommy Tuberville(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Tommy Tuberville continues to maintain a prohibitive lead. With major rivals out and previous reside...
🔓 Log in to see more
AI Analysis
UEFA Europa Conference League: Team to reach final
Soccer|$14.8k Vol|
time5 days 3 hrs

UEFA Europa Conference League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued
+16.3¢
Crystal Palace(No)
+12¢
Strasbourg(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of 'Yes' prices for the 4 teams is currently around 233.5%. Assuming these are the 4 semi-fi...
🔓 Log in to see more
Movers
Between April 28, 2026, and May 1, 2026, Rayo Vallecano surged from 47c to 67.5c, Crystal Palace surged from 73c to 92c, and Shakhtar Donetsk plummeted from 29.5c to 7.5c, driven by first-leg match results giving some teams massive advantages, while the overall market pricing structure became imbalanced again. Between April 6, 2026, and April 7, 2026, all options experienced massive price crashes. For instance, Mainz plummeted from 46c to 12.5c, AEK Athens from 42.5c to 12c, and Strasbourg from 45c to 24.5c. The reason is a severe market correction; participants had previously pushed the total implied probability up to ~350%, realized the logical flaw (only 2 teams can reach the final), and initiated a mass sell-off that overcorrected the total probability down to 135%.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Gretchen Whitmer
YesNo
0.95¢
99.05¢
92¢
+7.1¢
Josh Shapiro
YesNo
2.25¢
97.75¢
92¢
+5.8¢

Expand to view all 36 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
Bitcoin
DXY
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
The outcome of the US Presidential Election has a massive, structural impact on global financial markets. Candidates' differing policies on taxation, trade, regulation, and foreign affairs directly reshape the macroeconomic environment. For instance, a win by a candidate like JD Vance or Ron DeSantis might continue trade protectionism, boosting inflation expectations and bond yields, while a Democratic winner might focus on social spending. If a 'black swan' candidate (like Musk, despite low probability) were to win, the market shock would be immeasurable. Even a standard partisan contest is a core driver for the next four years of market trends, warranting an extreme impact score.
Divergence
Prediction markets currently view JD Vance and Gavin Newsom as the absolute frontrunners for their respective parties, whereas mainstream political analysis generally considers the 2028 primary landscape to be extremely open and uncertain. In particular, the market severely underestimates the odds of incumbent mainstream politicians (like various sitting swing-state governors), while assigning an excessive premium to non-traditional candidates with high media visibility but extreme general-election hurdles (like AOC or Tucker Carlson). This divergence reflects the 'eyeball effect' of prediction market capital, straying from traditional political science evaluation models based on primary mechanics and fundamentals.

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is PolyPredict AI and how can I access it?
2. How does the AI determine the "Fair Value"?
3. What makes the "Arbitrage Plans" unique?
4. What is the difference between Event and Live Markets?
5. What are the key differences between the Free and Pro versions?
6. Can I use PolyPredict AI on Telegram?

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets