All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$2.25–2.50
YesNo
$2.50–2.75
YesNo
$2.75–3.00
YesNo
$3.00–3.25
YesNo
$2.00–2.25
YesNo
$3.25–3.50
YesNo
≥$4.00
YesNo
$3.50–3.75
YesNo
<$2.00
YesNo
$3.75–4.00
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 21:31 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest St. Louis Fed (FRED) and BLS data, the egg price for February 2026 (APU0000708111) is effectively locked at $2.500. With March coinciding with peak pre-Easter demand and recent HPAI (Bird Flu) outbreaks in PA and WI reducing flock sizes by millions, wholesale prices are already trending upward in early March. Therefore, the March retail price is highly likely to exceed the February baseline of $2.500. Under the resolution rules, a price exactly on the boundary (e.g., $2.50) resolves to the higher bracket, cementing $2.50–2.75 and higher brackets as the only logical outcomes. Current market pricing on lower brackets (e.g., $2.00-2.25) is disconnected from fundamentals.
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Divergence
Significant divergence. Market pricing implies a 44% probability for the $2.00-2.25 bracket, which flatly contradicts reality. FRED data confirms the February price is already $2.50, and March fundamentals (HPAI + Easter) point to an increase. The market pricing appears to completely ignore the latest CPI data release and current supply/demand dynamics.
