All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
65-70m
YesNo
85-90m
YesNo
80-85m
YesNo
>90m
YesNo
60-65m
YesNo
70-75m
YesNo
75-80m
YesNo
55-60m
YesNo
50-55m
YesNo
<50m
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While 'Project Hail Mary' has triggered bets on a 'box office miracle' due to its stunning 98% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, causing capital to rush into the 75m+ range, current pricing has detached from fundamentals. Authoritative source Variety upgraded tracking to $63M-$65M on March 17, implying that the '60-65m' and '65-70m' brackets are the rational landing spots based on data. The market is pushing the median near $80M, which is extremely optimistic for a non-sequel sci-fi film (even 'Oppenheimer' opened to $82M with Nolan's fame). Given the $200M budget marketing push and word-of-mouth, the film is highly likely to 'modestly beat' tracking (landing in 65-75m) rather than achieve the 'insane multiplier' (>85m) the market is fantasizing about. Thus, the 65-70m bracket is severely undervalued (currently at 8.5c) and offers high value.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
IMAX
AMC
CNK
Box office performance directly impacts the short-term stock prices of theater chains (AMC, CNK) and premium format providers (IMAX), especially for sci-fi blockbusters like 'Project Hail Mary'. A significant beat (>$70M) would likely trigger an intraday rally in these stocks. While Amazon MGM is the distributor, Amazon's massive market cap means a single film's P&L has negligible impact on AMZN stock (Score 1). Thus, the best hedging assets are mid-cap theater stocks.
Movers
March 18, 2026: The '75-80m' option experienced significant volatility, spiking to a high of 27c in the morning before retracing to 19.5c by midday. This was due to profit-taking after the initial surge driven by the '98% audience score' news, combined with market hesitation about whether the film can truly breach the $80M mark.
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The price of the '60-65m' option crashed from 18c to 4.5c. Although Variety forecasted a $63-65M opening, euphoric market sentiment deemed this too conservative, causing a mass exodus of capital to higher brackets and leaving the 'official forecast range' abandoned.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The '>90m' option rebounded from 2.5c to 15.7c as speculative capital bet on a 'Top Gun: Maverick' style miracle closer to release day, ignoring historical ceilings for non-sequel sci-fi films.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The consensus forecast from mainstream media (Variety, Deadline) and industry tracking lies in the $63M-$65M range, representing cautious optimism. However, the prediction market's implied median has surged to ~$78M, with prices suggesting a >60% probability that the film will significantly beat industry tracking (i.e., >70m). This divergence stems from the market's emotional pricing of the '98% audience score,' which is outpacing industry model revisions.
