All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Marco Rubio
YesNo
J.D. Vance
YesNo
Ron DeSantis
YesNo
Donald Trump
YesNo
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
YesNo
Ivanka Trump
YesNo
Elon Musk
YesNo
Greg Abbott
YesNo
Matt Gaetz
YesNo
Brian Kemp
YesNo
Ted Cruz
YesNo
Tom Brady
YesNo
Marjorie Taylor Greene
YesNo
Steve Bannon
YesNo
Thomas Massie
YesNo
Eric Trump
YesNo
Kim Kardashian
YesNo
Glenn Youngkin
YesNo
Mike Pence
YesNo
Erika Kirk
YesNo
Tucker Carlson
YesNo
Byron Donalds
YesNo
Vivek Ramaswamy
YesNo
John Thune
YesNo
Kristi Noem
YesNo
Elise Stefanik
YesNo
Josh Hawley
YesNo
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
YesNo
Donald Trump Jr.
YesNo
Rand Paul
YesNo
Tulsi Gabbard
YesNo
Nikki Haley
YesNo
Katie Britt
YesNo
Joe Kent
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 2026, J.D. Vance holds the strongest structural advantage as the incumbent VP. Although his current price (39c) reflects market skepticism about his charisma, historical base rates (e.g., HW Bush, Gore) suggest his fair value should be around 45c. Marco Rubio (26c) carries a significant 'Cabinet Halo' premium; history shows cabinet members rarely threaten sitting VPs at this stage, indicating he is severely overvalued. Donald Trump is strictly valued at 0 due to the 22nd Amendment. Tucker Carlson's recent rise reflects a hedge on populist sentiment. Ron DeSantis, as the primary 'Plan B', offers excellent odds value at 3c.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DJT
S&P 500
RUM
This event has significant macro implications for financial markets. If specific candidates (e.g., J.D. Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, or Elon Musk) secure the nomination, their policy inclinations (e.g., trade protectionism, crypto regulation, deregulation) will directly impact the broad market (S&P 500) and US Treasury yields. In particular, concept stocks like Trump Media (DJT) and Rumble (RUM) are deeply tied to the political fortunes of specific candidates (primarily the Trump family or MAGA faction). A win by a non-mainstream establishment candidate could trigger larger market volatility.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market is currently over-hyping Marco Rubio (26%), narrowing the gap with incumbent VP Vance (39%) to just 13 points. However, mainstream political science and historical data suggest that absent a major scandal, an incumbent VP's nomination probability usually exceeds 50%, while cabinet challengers rarely succeed. The market is suffering from 'recency bias' due to recent news coverage, severely underestimating the structural advantage of incumbency.
