Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$386.3k Vol|
time242 days 23 hrs

Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
$70M(No)
+2.5¢
$150M(No)
+1¢
$200M(No)

Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch? AI analysis: • +3.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The launch timing for Reya Network's token remains uncertain. Although there has been recent volatil...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Houston on May 3?
Weather|$26.2k Vol|
time6 hrs 56 mins

Highest temperature in Houston on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+22¢
80-81°F(Yes)
+14.5¢
78-79°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest National Weather Service (NWS) and other major weather platforms (AccuWeather, WeatherBug...
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Exotics
While weather prediction markets are not uncommon on some platforms, predicting the exact temperature range for a specific city on a specific day remains a relatively niche and unconventional topic for the general public.
Movers
Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the price of the '82°F or higher' option surged from 6.5c to 23c, while the '76-77°F' option plummeted from 27c to 5.3c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts showing a clear warming trend over the weekend, pushing the expected high to around 80-81°F, significantly reducing the probability of cooler brackets and increasing the tail risk of extreme heat. Between May 1 and May 2, 2026, no single-day fluctuations exceeding 10c were observed.
Divergence
There is a slight divergence. The prediction market currently favors the '78-79°F' bracket (trading at 39.5c), whereas the latest NWS and major weather service forecasts for KHOU explicitly point to a high of 80°F or 81°F. The market pricing appears slightly lagging behind the recently updated warmer forecasts.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
Weather|$35.1k Vol|
time6 hrs 56 mins

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
30°C(No)
+0.9¢
27°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts (specifically from AccuWeather and Wunderground), the high tem...
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Exotics
While predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is somewhat niche, weather data prediction is a recurring category on prediction markets. It's not extremely bizarre, though rarely a focus for the general public.
Movers
Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from around 32c to 69c. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and weather models consolidating certainty around a 28°C high. Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the 29°C and 30°C options saw significant drops. Notably, the 30°C option plummeted from a peak of 25.5c down to 4.5c, as confirmed rainfall forecasts practically eliminated the possibility of temperatures reaching or exceeding 30°C.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?
Weather|$32.2k Vol|
time6 hrs 56 mins

Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
24°C(No)
+0.3¢
20°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is already May 3, 2026, and the market is about to resolve. According to the latest real-time ...
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Exotics
This is a prediction market targeting the specific high temperature of a single day in Chengdu. Aside from local residents or specialized weather derivative traders, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts this specific data point, giving it a moderate level of novelty and exoticism.
Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from around 11c to 42c, the 21°C option jumped from 1c to 19c, while the 24°C option plummeted from a peak of 37c to 6c, and the 25°C option dropped from 16c to 5c. This is because, as the resolution date arrived, real-time weather data indicated that the actual high temperature for the day would be significantly lower than previous long-term forecasts (only around 21-23°C).
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 3?
Weather|$26.3k Vol|
time6 hrs 56 mins

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+13¢
26°C(No)
+9.5¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe International Air...
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Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 25°C option surged from 36.5c to 49.5c, as the approaching resolution time solidified weather forecasts pointing to 25°C as the daily high. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 24°C option rose from 32c to 41.5c, indicating the market believes there is still a significant chance the recorded high will be 24°C. May 2, 2026: The 26°C option temporarily spiked from 9.5c to 23c before falling back to 14c, reflecting short-term uncertainty from intraday temperature fluctuations. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The 23°C option crashed from 23c down to 0.55c, as actual temperatures already exceeded 23°C, eliminating it as a possible winning outcome.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 3?
Weather|$24.6k Vol|
time6 hrs 56 mins

Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+4.1¢
21°C(Yes)
+2¢
25°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of 1:00 PM local time in Chongqing on May 3, the real-time temperature is around 21°C. The latest...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact highest temperature (to the whole degree) of a specific city on a given day is a very niche and novelty market. Ordinary people rarely think about or forecast such highly specific meteorological outcomes.
Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged rapidly from around 20c to 46.5c, while options for 25°C and above plummeted to near zero. This was driven by actual sensor data on the resolution day (May 3) showing lower-than-expected temperatures (only around 21°C by early afternoon), effectively ruling out the higher temperature ranges. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the market saw smooth adjustments as forecast models updated, with 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C initially holding the highest probabilities before expectations cooled due to increased cloud cover.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
$70M
YesNo
63.5¢
36.5¢
60¢
40¢
+3.5¢
$150M
YesNo
27.5¢
72.5¢
25¢
75¢
+2.5¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the $200M option price surged from 14.5c to 27.5c, then fell back to 16c on May 2, likely triggered by a small number of buys in an extremely low liquidity environment. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the $70M option price spiked from 52.5c to 72.5c, indicating a brief renewal of market confidence in this baseline valuation target. April 23, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the $70M option price plunged from 75.5c to 49c, reflecting highly erratic market-making activity and a rapid decline in investor confidence regarding the project's ability to maintain even the lowest valuation floor. March 26, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the $400M option experienced severe volatility, dropping from 7.95c to 5.65c before rebounding to 10.8c, reflecting capital gaming in a low-liquidity environment. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the $70M option price plunged from 60c to 39.5c, indicating severe market doubt about its ability to maintain even the lowest valuation floor, or reflecting a withdrawal of market-making funds. March 15, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the $200M option price consolidated at lows between 9.5c and 12c, with no significant directional breakout, indicating a period of extreme low-volume wait-and-see following the crash earlier in the month. March 10, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the $200M option price fell from 14.5c to 9.5c, giving up previous gains and highlighting extreme fragility following the withdrawal of market maker liquidity. March 6, 2026, the $200M option experienced a flash crash from 17.5c to 9.5c, before briefly recovering to 14.5c on March 10. Overall, the market lacks genuine buy pressure, with price action dominated by thin sell-side liquidity.

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