Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?' event. Given the extremely low volume ($13), analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread, and update the assessment of fair value for this 'parlay' bet by synthesizing the latest campaign momentum for Dati (Paris), Allisio (Marseille), and Aulas (Lyon).

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?' event. Given the extremely low volume ($13), analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread, and update the assessment of fair value for this 'parlay' bet by synthesizing the latest campaign momentum for Dati (Paris), Allisio (Marseille), and Aulas (Lyon).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest authoritative polling data (e.g., IFOP, Ipsos) for Paris, Marseille, and Lyon. Compare the polling gaps between Rachida Dati, Franck Allisio, Jean-Michel Aulas and their respective opponents—specifically verifying Aulas's actual viability in Lyon—to identify if a single losing candidate creates a 'hard stop' risk for this multi-city prediction.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest authoritative polling data (e.g., IFOP, Ipsos) for Paris, Marseille, and Lyon. Compare the polling gaps between Rachida Dati, Franck Allisio, Jean-Michel Aulas and their respective opponents—specifically verifying Aulas's actual viability in Lyon—to identify if a single losing candidate creates a 'hard stop' risk for this multi-city prediction.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Conduct a qualitative risk-reward analysis specifically for this strict 'all-three-must-win' condition: Does the current market pricing reflect a rational calculation of cumulative probability (P(Paris) * P(Marseille) * P(Lyon)), or is the price behaving like a 'lottery ticket' due to low liquidity and high complexity?

AI-powered analysis for: Conduct a qualitative risk-reward analysis specifically for this strict 'all-three-must-win' condition: Does the current market pricing reflect a rational calculation of cumulative probability (P(Paris) * P(Marseille) * P(Lyon)), or is the price behaving like a 'lottery ticket' due to low liquidity and high complexity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$4,722 Vol|

2 days 23 hrs

Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

2.3¢

97.7¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.3¢

AI Insights:

03.18 09:24 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

This event is a parlay requiring victories for Dati (Paris), Allisio (Marseille), and Aulas (Lyon). Round 1 results from March 15 indicate that while the races in Marseille and Lyon are tight (win probability ~40-50%), Rachida Dati is trailing by over 12 percentage points in Paris (~25.5% vs ~38%). Given the dynamics of the 'Republican Front' and the short turnaround time, Dati's chance of overturning this deficit in the runoff is minimal (<5%). Applying the chain rule of probability (0.05 * 0.45 * 0.45 ≈ 1.0%), the true odds for 'Yes' are roughly 1%, making the current price of 2.45c overpriced due to longshot bias.

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Exotics

This is a moderately exotic combination market. While Rachida Dati (Paris) and Franck Allisio (Marseille) are standard political figures, listing Jean-Michel Aulas (a famous football club chairman) as the specific mayoral candidate for Lyon adds a 'novelty' element. It predicts a specific celebrity/political scenario rather than just generic party victories.

Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? - AI Odds Analysis

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