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AI Insights:
03.15 07:37 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Bolojan just survived the early March crisis (reflected in the price drop from 60c), the baseline price for 'Yes' (Removal) has structurally shifted from the ~20c range in Feb to over 40c. This indicates the market believes the coalition fractures are permanent. Given two crises in less than two months (Feb pensions, Mar political instability) and 9 months remaining, the frequency of friction significantly increases the cumulative probability of him being 'sacrificed' before year-end budget talks. The current 41.5c reflects short-term survival but slightly undervalues the long-term removal risk amidst such high-frequency volatility.
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