Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
Geopolitics|$11.4k Vol|
time1 days 13 hrs

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? - AI Found +17¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.28 06:01
Top Undervalued
+17¢
(No)

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? AI analysis: • +17¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price of 38 cents reflects a moderate-to-low probability of a drone or missile st...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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"They Will Kill You" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Culture|$16.6k Vol|
time13 hrs 32 mins

"They Will Kill You" Rotten Tomatoes score?

Top Undervalued
+20.5¢
65+(Yes)
+4.4¢
70+(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Currently, 'They Will Kill You' has over 100 critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, with the Tomatomet...
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Movers
March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the Yes price for 65+ plunged from 94.5c to 55.5c, and 70+ plummeted from 58.5c to 1.25c. The reason is that as the review count surpassed 100, the score settled around 66%-67%, crushing hopes for a 70+ score and introducing slight market fears of a drop below 65%. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the Yes price for 60+ surged from 43c to 98c, and 65+ surged from 40.5c to 94.5c, while the Yes price for 75+ plummeted from 44.5c to 2c. The reason is that as more early reviews were published and aggregated on Rotten Tomatoes, the film's score gradually locked into the 65-74% range, eliminating the likelihood of extremely high or low scores.
AI Analysis
Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish
Sports|$304.2k Vol|
time6 days 18 hrs

Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish

Top Undervalued
+88¢
George Russell(Yes)
+62¢
Oscar Piastri(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing and fluctuations during practice/qualifying, the Mercedes duo (Ru...
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Movers
2026-03-26 to 2026-03-29, Oscar Piastri's Yes price surged from 10.9c to a peak of 43.4c (currently 38.35c), while Lando Norris spiked to 45c before dropping back to 14.5c. This is due to McLaren's lap times in practice or qualifying sparking strong optimism for Piastri's podium finish. 2026-03-26 to 2026-03-29, Charles Leclerc's Yes price rebounded from 46.0c to 60.0c, while Lewis Hamilton's price fell from 45.0c to 24.5c. This indicates a divergence in Ferrari's intra-team performance, with Leclerc showing better long-run or qualifying pace than Hamilton. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-26, Pierre Gasly's Yes price plummeted from 35.8c to 1.25c, and Oliver Bearman's dropped from 13.15c to 1.75c. This is likely due to the fading of speculative buying driven by early free practice times or weather forecasts, returning to realistic expectations. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-26, Charles Leclerc's Yes price retreated from 62.5c to 46.0c, likely adjusted due to other teams' performance in practice sessions affecting the expectation of a double Ferrari podium. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-26, Lando Norris's Yes price fell from 24.0c to 13.5c, and Max Verstappen's dropped from 24.0c to 13.0c, further confirming the lack of podium competitiveness for McLaren and Red Bull at this track.
AI Analysis
Japanese Grand Prix: Head-to-Head
Sports|$23.4k Vol|
time6 days 18 hrs

Japanese Grand Prix: Head-to-Head

Top Undervalued
+85¢
Piastri vs Russell(Russell)
+85¢
Verstappen vs Russell(Verstappen)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Early 2026 season data indicates absolute dominance by Mercedes, with Russell performing exceptional...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant naming ambiguity risk. The option 'Albon vs Jr.' likely refers to Carlos Sainz Jr. (Albon's teammate at Williams in 2026), but this non-standard abbreviation creates resolution uncertainty. Additionally, the rules do not specify the tie-breaker logic if both drivers fail to finish (DNF) – whether it is determined by laps completed or voided – which is a common dispute point in racing head-to-head markets.
AI Analysis
Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Fastest Lap
Sports|$16.3k Vol|
time6 days 18 hrs

Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Fastest Lap

Top Undervalued
+61¢
Andrea Kimi Antonelli(No)
+32¢
George Russell(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Mercedes drivers (Antonelli and Russell) have shown exceptional long-run pace in recent races, makin...
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Movers
March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, Alexander Albon's price crashed from 23.85c to 1.5c, likely due to poor practice performance or confirmation of a lack of long-run competitiveness. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, Pierre Gasly's price crashed from 21.1c to 1.55c, likely because the market realized his car lacks the fundamental pace to contend for the fastest lap in the race. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Isack Hadjar's price surged from 2.05c to 25.85c, likely driven by strong recent track performance or car upgrades indicating excellent race pace, attracting significant betting volume. March 21, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Charles Leclerc's price plummeted from 41c to 13.5c, while Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri both crashed from around 41c to 4.5c. This was a market correction from early illiquid overpricing, adjusting to the true long-run pace deficit of Ferrari and McLaren compared to the front-runners. March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, major option prices remained stagnant at the illiquid high of 0.40c, with no significant effective price movement detected. This suggests the market was in an inactive state and had not yet corrected to reflect the actual results of the Australian Grand Prix.
AI Analysis
Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Winner
Sports|$1.5m Vol|
time6 days 18 hrs

Japanese Grand Prix: Driver Winner

Top Undervalued
+45¢
Andrea Kimi Antonelli(No)
+34.9¢
George Russell(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Following the dramatic market shift likely post-qualifying, Mercedes maintains absolute dominance, b...
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Movers
March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, Andrea Kimi Antonelli's price surged from 27.0c to 57.0c, while George Russell's price plunged from 57.0c to 33.5c. The reason is Antonelli showing overwhelming pace during the Japanese GP weekend, likely securing Pole Position over his teammate and boosting market confidence in his maiden Suzuka win. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, George Russell's price remained dominant (~60c), while teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli surged from 14c to 23c, driven by his maiden Pole Position and Race Win in China, establishing him as a genuine contender. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Max Verstappen's price collapsed from 12.5c to 8.0c (continuing to 2.95c in subsequent days) due to Red Bull's disastrous performance at the Chinese Grand Prix, revealing a lack of competitiveness and drivability.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
YesNo
55¢
45¢
38¢
62¢
+17¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The rules state that intercepted attacks count if there is 'clear evidence' they were directed at the Kyiv municipality. In practice, proving the exact intended target of a destroyed weapon (i.e., the municipality vs. just flying over or targeting the broader oblast) could lead to significant resolution disputes.

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