World|$523.9k Vol|
3 days 6 hrsSanta Cruz de la Sierra Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia) - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Manuel Saavedra
YesNo
Alfredo Solares
YesNo
Félix Oros
YesNo
Angélica Sosa
YesNo
Jhonny Fernández
YesNo
Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine
YesNo
Oscar Vargas
YesNo
Vicente Cuéllar
YesNo
Luciano Negrete
YesNo
Soo Hyun Chung
YesNo
José Gary Áñez
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only 3 days left until the March 22 election, the race is effectively settled. According to the latest Unitel/Ipsos CIESMORI poll (released Feb 20) and subsequent trends, Manuel Saavedra holds a commanding lead with 66.3% support, creating a massive gap of nearly 60 percentage points over the runner-up, Gary Áñez (7.5%). Under the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, reversing such a deficit in the final 72 hours is statistically impossible. Incumbent mayor Jhonny Fernández has seen his support collapse to single digits (~1-2%). While Saavedra's current price of ~96c is high, his fair value is closer to 99c given that barring extreme force majeure (e.g., election cancellation or sudden disqualification), victory is all but guaranteed. The remaining ~4c spread in the market is likely an excessive hedge against Bolivian political volatility.
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Rule Risk
High risk of 'dead options'. Credible local reports from Jan 21, 2026, state that major candidate Vicente Cuéllar has officially withdrawn due to health reasons; betting on him is a guaranteed loss if confirmed. Additionally, the list includes both the incumbent 'Jhonny Fernández' and his party's registered candidate 'Luciano Negrete'. Reports suggest Jhonny himself may not be on the ballot (with Negrete running for the party), making the famous incumbent a potential 'name trap' since resolution typically relies on the specific candidate named on the ballot.
