All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31
YesNo
April 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 15:03 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the House passed the bill on Feb 11, 2026, structural resistance in the Senate (60-vote threshold) remains formidable. Majority Leader Thune has ruled out the 'nuclear option,' and Democrats are staunchly opposed. While President Trump's March 8 ultimatum to freeze other legislation applies pressure, reaching such a complex political compromise by April 30 is highly unlikely. The Dec 31 pricing (30%) reflects speculative bets on a 'budget omnibus attachment' strategy, but given the Senate gridlock, fair value is closer to 20%.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
March 8, 2026 - March 11, 2026, the price of the December 31 option surged from ~18c to 29.5c. The driver was President Trump's ultimatum refusing to sign any new legislation (including the crypto CLARITY Act) until the SAVE Act is passed, which sparked speculative buying based on the possibility of a coerced legislative deal.
Divergence
Market pricing (~30%) diverges significantly from the mainstream political consensus. The prevailing view (e.g., Politico, NCSL) is that the bill is 'dead on arrival' in the Senate due to the Democratic filibuster and the GOP's lack of 60 votes. The market is likely overpricing Trump's leverage while underestimating the Senate Majority Leader's commitment to preserving institutional rules (maintaining the filibuster).
