All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
Democratic Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.09 02:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although incumbent Republican Nancy Mace has announced a run for Governor in 2026, making SC-01 an open seat—which typically introduces uncertainty, especially in a midterm year for the President's party (GOP)—the district's structural advantage remains formidable. Following the post-2020 redistricting, which excised Democratic strongholds in Charleston, the district is rated 'Solid R' by Cook Political Report with a PVI of R+7. Mace's ~17-point victory in 2024 demonstrates the new map's safety. The 2018 Democratic flip occurred under the old, more competitive lines. Absent an unprecedented political wave, the GOP's hold on this seat should exceed 90% probability.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate SC-01 as 'Solid Republican,' implying a win probability typically >90%. However, the prediction market currently prices it at only ~79%. This suggests retail traders may be overweighting the risks of an 'Open Seat' and 'Midterm Headwinds' while underappreciating that the 2020 redistricting transformed this district into a GOP stronghold (evidenced by a 17-point win in 2024).
