Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche category in prediction markets, akin to weather derivatives. While not as mainstream as political elections, it has a dedicated audience on certain platforms and isn't exceedingly bizarre.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of 24°C surged from 12.5c to 29c as consensus among forecasting models shifted towards this temperature range being the most probable high. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of 26°C dropped from 23.5c to 12.5c because, as the resolution date approaches, forecasts have downgraded the likelihood of unseasonably high extreme temperatures.

From April 4 to April 5, 2026, the price of '16°C' rose from 16c to 30c, and '14°C' climbed from 15.5c to a peak of 28c. Meanwhile, '17°C' surged from 7c to 27c during April 4. This was driven by the release of updated short-term weather forecasts as the resolution date nears, locking the expected high temperature into the 14°C-16°C range, causing market capital to concentrate in these high-probability brackets and exit outlier options.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche but standard fixture in prediction markets, even though the general public rarely ponders such micro-level data.

Between April 4, 2026, and April 5, 2026, the price of the '28°C or below' option surged from 26c to 60c, as forecasts for rain and lower temperatures became more certain with the approaching date. Between April 4, 2026, and April 5, 2026, the price of the '29°C' option fluctuated, initially rising then falling, eventually stabilizing around 21.5c, reflecting market adjustments to the specific low-temperature value. On April 4, 2026, the '31°C' option experienced volatility, dropping from 17.5c to 4.5c before rebounding to 8.5c and settling around 7c, indicating that the likelihood of higher temperatures is being gradually priced out.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a specific day is a niche novelty topic in prediction markets. Unless extreme weather is expected, the general public typically does not think about this everyday phenomenon down to the exact degree.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The Yes price for 15°C dropped from a peak of 22c (April 4, 09:35) to 5c (April 5, 19:10), a 17c movement, as weather forecasts adjusted towards higher temperatures as the date approached. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The Yes price for 19°C dropped from a peak of 21c (April 4, 11:45) to 11c (April 5, 19:10), a 10c movement, due to extreme highs being increasingly ruled out, concentrating market consensus in the 16-18°C range.