All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Scottish Labour
YesNo
Scottish National Party
YesNo
Reform UK
YesNo
Scottish Conservatives
YesNo
Scottish Liberal Democrats
YesNo
Alba Party
YesNo
Sovereignty Party
YesNo
Scottish Green Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 00:12 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite a minor price correction for the SNP (dropping from 95c to 92c), the structural advantage of the SNP in the constituency vote under the AMS system remains intact. It is extremely difficult for Labour or other opposition parties to overtake the SNP in 'total seats'. Parties like Alba and the Greens, while vocal, have zero chance of becoming the largest party. The market has largely priced in the 'Welsh Parliament' typo in the rules, relying on the clause referencing the 'Electoral Commission of Scotland'. The fair value remains around 95c, making the current 92c a slightly undervalued entry point.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No Alba Party'
Plan Description:
The Alba Party's implied probability of nearly 3% (2.85c) is completely disconnected from political reality (Alba struggles to win a single seat, let alone the most seats). Buying 'No' at a cost of 97.15c to payout 100c in ~52 days represents a high-certainty 'soft arbitrage' strategy with an annualized yield of approximately 20%. The only risk lies in extreme interpretations of platform rules (the typo issue), not the election outcome itself.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 20.58%
Rule Risk
There is a significant copy-paste error in the rules: while the title and most of the text refer to the Scottish Parliamentary Election, the resolution clause incorrectly states it will be based on seats won in the 'Welsh Parliament' and mentions the 'Welsh government'. Although the link points to the correct Electoral Commission of Scotland and 'Scotland' is the dominant context, this textual conflict creates a material ambiguity risk.
