With over 33 hours of tracking elapsed (roughly 20% of the total duration), Musk's effective posting...

There are moderate resolution risks. First, the distinction between standard replies (excluded) and main feed replies (included) can cause disputes. Second, counting deleted posts strictly relies on the xtracker capturing them within ~5 minutes, introducing technical dependency risks.

This is a quintessential novelty market. Outside of prediction market platforms, nobody systematically forecasts the exact number of posts a billionaire makes in a random week. It is purely designed for entertainment and speculation.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' shares for all four remaining options (Michigan 34.5c, Arizona 33.5c, Illinois 17.25c, Connecticut 13.55c). Plan Description: The current sum of 'Yes' prices for the four options is 98.8c. Since the tournament is at the Final ...

As the tournament is in the Final Four stage, prices for all teams have highly stabilized over the p...

The market pricing is highly efficient, accurately reflecting the group's 'two-horse race' dynamic. ...

While the IDF's official strategic objective is to clear Hezbollah forces 'South of the Litani' to e...

For those following Middle East geopolitics, the Litani River is a standard point of interest as it is often cited as a strategic boundary for Israel. However, for the general public, this is a specific military tactical question rather than general news, making it moderately exotic/specialized.

This event represents a major escalation (deep ground invasion) in the Lebanon conflict. If IDF forces cross the Litani River, it signifies a widening war, directly threatening Middle East crude supply security and likely causing oil prices to spike. Risk-off sentiment would boost Gold and could inflict short-term panic pressure on equities. This is not just a local skirmish but risks escalating a proxy war involving Iran.

March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 'Yes' option surged from 52.5c to 65c (a >10c increase). This reflects rapidly escalating market expectations that as ground troops approach the Litani riverbanks, the IDF might conduct physical crossings for tactical necessities, such as destroying north-bank launch sites or securing bridgeheads. March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the implied probability for the 'Yes' option fundamentally shifted, as the IDF officially confirmed the start of a ground invasion aimed at clearing the area south of the Litani River. Previously (March 14), Axios reported plans for a 'massive' ground operation 'like Gaza', triggering initial volatility and heightening expectations of a major escalation.

Divergence exists. Mainstream military and geopolitical analyses generally hold that Israel's current ground operation is designed to establish a defensive line and enforce UN Resolution 1701 (clearing south of the Litani). Pushing north across the river would trigger severe international backlash and the risk of a quagmire. However, the prediction market assigns a 65% probability to a crossing, indicating that bettors believe 'mission creep' or short-term tactical border-crossings are inevitable on the battlefield, contrasting sharply with official statements and conservative strategic consensus.

According to the latest forecasts, the high temperature for New York's LaGuardia Airport on April 3,...

March 31 - April 1, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' strongly rebounded from 5c to 21.5c, as updated weather models closer to settlement hinted that Friday's highs might not break 60°F due to rain and cloud cover. March 30 - March 31, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' plunged from 33.5c (and an intraday high of 53.5c) to under 14c, while '60-61°F' and '62-63°F' rose. This was caused by interim forecasts locking the expected high just above 60°F, eliminating extreme cold expectations at that time. March 29 - March 30, 2026: Extreme high-temperature options like '78°F or higher' plummeted, as earlier forecast models showing anomalous warming scenarios were invalidated, prompting a swift market correction.