Mandatory Task: Retrieve the latest Order Book data (bid/ask spread, depth) from the Polymarket page and combine it with recent local Italian media reports or polls regarding this by-election to update the fair value assessment and risk analysis for top candidates like Antonino Stivanello or Giulio Centenaro.

AI-powered analysis for: Mandatory Task: Retrieve the latest Order Book data (bid/ask spread, depth) from the Polymarket page and combine it with recent local Italian media reports or polls regarding this by-election to update the fair value assessment and risk analysis for top candidates like Antonino Stivanello or Giulio Centenaro.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search local Italian news sources (e.g., PadovaOggi, Il Mattino di Padova) or Twitter for the latest breaking news regarding the Selvazzano Dentro (Veneto 2 - 02) by-election, specifically looking for any candidate withdrawals or changes in endorsements from major coalitions (Center-Right/Center-Left) that are driving current price volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: Search local Italian news sources (e.g., PadovaOggi, Il Mattino di Padova) or Twitter for the latest breaking news regarding the Selvazzano Dentro (Veneto 2 - 02) by-election, specifically looking for any candidate withdrawals or changes in endorsements from major coalitions (Center-Right/Center-Left) that are driving current price volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the time remaining until the March 22-23, 2026 election, analyze the time decay (Theta) for each option (Specific Candidates vs. Other): if there is no major news regarding campaign activities in the next week, which side carries a higher holding risk due to the opportunity cost of capital?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the time remaining until the March 22-23, 2026 election, analyze the time decay (Theta) for each option (Specific Candidates vs. Other): if there is no major news regarding campaign activities in the next week, which side carries a higher holding risk due to the opportunity cost of capital?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$759 Vol|

5 days 4 hrs

Selvazzano Dentro By-Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Mario Adinolfi

YesNo

1.45¢

98.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.4¢

Giulio Centenaro

YesNo

95.5¢

4.5¢

96¢

4¢

+0.5¢

0¢

Antonino Stivanello

YesNo

2.8¢

97.2¢

3¢

97¢

+0.2¢

0¢

Andrea Paccagnella

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

AI Insights:

17 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

With less than 6 days remaining until the March 22 by-election, the status of the Veneto 2-02 constituency as a traditional Center-Right (CDX) stronghold remains extremely solid. Giulio Centenaro's (Lega) victory is virtually locked. The current market price (~93c) trades slightly below fair value (96c), mainly because market participants are retaining a tiny risk premium for extremely low-probability 'black swan' events (e.g., upsets caused by very low turnout). Conversely, the Center-Left candidate Stivanello's price (~4c) fully reflects his reality as a non-competitive runner with almost no chance of an upset.

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Exotics

This is a hyper-local by-election for a specific seat in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. While standard for Italian politics, it is relatively niche for a general international audience, placing it between a major election and a completely obscure novelty.

Selvazzano Dentro By-Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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