April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '76°F or higher' surged from 38c to 56c, and '74-75°F' briefly touched 35c. This was due to updated meteorological models indicating that the impact of the warm air mass might be stronger than initially expected, further raising high-temperature expectations. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '76°F or higher' surged from 22.5c to 40c, and '74-75°F' rose from 15.5c to 29.5c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, new meteorological models indicate a stronger warm air mass affecting the region, leading to upward revisions in temperature expectations. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '68-69°F' plummeted from 16.5c to 2.6c, and '70-71°F' dropped from 20c to 10c, as forecasts generally ruled out significant cooling or persistent cloud cover, prompting market capital to swiftly exit lower temperature ranges.

There is a slight divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (like AccuWeather and NWS) generally estimate the high temperature on April 7 to be around 74°F to 75°F, but Polymarket traders have pushed '76°F or higher' to an absolute leading position at 56%. This suggests the market is betting that meteorological forecast models are systematically underestimating the warmth, or that short-term weather anomalies will cause temperatures to break out to the upside.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 20°C surged from 30.5c to 42.5c, and 21°C briefly spiked to 34c before settling around 23.5c, while 18°C dropped from 15.5c to 8.5c. The reason is that meteorological models further raised temperature expectations as the date approached. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 17°C plummeted from 21c to around 5c, and 18°C dropped from 30.5c to 10.5c, while 19°C and 20°C rebounded significantly. This reflects the meteorological models revising the intensity of the cold front on April 7, raising the expected temperature compared to earlier forecasts.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 33.5c to 65c. This occurred because, as the resolution date neared, the latest forecasts solidified the high temperature at 18°C, while the 17°C option concurrently crashed to <1c. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 18°C option climbed from 26.5c to 40c. This was driven by updated short-term weather forecasts locking in high probabilities of rain on April 7, solidly anchoring the expected high temperature around 18°C. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 16c to 30c, triggered by initial weather forecasts indicating heavy cloud cover and precipitation on April 7, which significantly lowered the anticipated maximum temperature.

April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 21c to 37c, 18°C rose from 19.5c to 30.5c, and 15°C plummeted from 18c to 5c. This occurred because, as the settlement date approaches, weather forecast models further converged, pinpointing the expected highest temperature in the 17°C to 18°C range and ruling out lower temperatures. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 19°C plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c, and 20°C dropped from 13c to 2.5c, because weather forecast models have converged as the settlement date approaches, ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 'XO, Kitty Season 3' pulled back from 95.5c to 84.5c before rebounding to 93.5c, as some traders took profits ahead of the update, followed by the market reaffirming its #1 position and buying back in. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'XO, Kitty Season 3' surged from 65c to 95.5c, because the weekly viewership tracking is nearing its end and its continuous dominance on the daily charts pushed market confidence to its peak. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1' plummeted from 17c to 4c, due to slower-than-expected weekend viewership growth, entirely eliminating its mathematical chances of an overtake. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, older shows like 'Love on the Spectrum: Season 4' and 'Beauty in Black: Season 2' plummeted from around 38c to near 0c, as the dominance of this week's top contenders became overwhelmingly clear, eliminating their chances.