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YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 01:01 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
This market requires three extremely low-probability conditions to be met simultaneously within the remaining 17 days. While AWS may have arguably met the 'Disrupted' threshold earlier, both Discord and Cloudflare must incur 'Critical' incidents to trigger a 'Yes' resolution. Historical data shows such incidents occur only 1-2 times per year and rarely coincide within a two-week window. The price spike on March 10 (to 22c) followed by a crash on March 11 (to 5c) strongly suggests the market overreacted to a minor glitch that was confirmed as non-critical. Given the short timeframe and the requirement for multiple independent 'black swan' events, the true probability of 'Yes' is negligible.
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Rule Risk
This market is a high-risk 'parlay' bet requiring AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare to **ALL** experience severe incidents within the timeframe to resolve YES. The main risk lies in the definitions of 'Critical Incident' and 'Disrupted'. While usually based on official status pages, there is ambiguity in what qualifies (e.g., is a regional outage sufficient? minimum duration?). Furthermore, the requirement that *all three* conditions be met significantly lowers the probability of YES, which casual users might overlook.
Exotics
While internet service outages are common topics, bundling faults from three specific infrastructure giants (AWS, Discord, Cloudflare) into a parlay bet represents a novel derivative design. It's not purely absurd (like an alien invasion) but differs from traditional single-event predictions, adding a layer of gamification and specificity.
Movers
From March 10, 2026 to March 11, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' crashed from 22.2c to 5.0c. The reason is likely a market correction after an initial speculative spike driven by a minor service fluctuation that failed to meet the strict 'Critical' threshold required by the rules.
Divergence
The market pricing (implied 3.5% probability) remains significantly higher than the statistical probability of the event (<0.1%). The volatility on March 10 suggests participant confusion or speculation regarding the 'incident' definitions. Without a catastrophic global infrastructure collapse, the real-world likelihood of the remaining conditions being met simultaneously is nearly zero.
