All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
YesNo
Freedom Movement (GS)
YesNo
Democrats (D)
YesNo
Prerod (PVP)
YesNo
Mi, socialisti! (Mi!)
YesNo
Resni.ca (Res)
YesNo
New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
YesNo
Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS)
YesNo
Social Democrats (SD)
YesNo
Slovenian People’s Party (SLS)
YesNo
Our Country (ND)
YesNo
Vesna – Green Party (Vesna)
YesNo
Party of Generations (SG)
YesNo
Slovenian National Party (SNS)
YesNo
The Left (Levica)
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Given Slovenia's current political landscape, the election is effectively a two-horse race between SDS (Janez Janša) and the Freedom Movement GS (Robert Golob). Polls consistently show SDS in first place (30-35%) and GS in second (15-20%), while third-party contenders (SD, NSi) poll in single digits (5-8%) and are extremely unlikely to break into the top two. Thus, this '2nd Place' market effectively functions as a derivative of the winner market. The base case is SDS #1 and GS #2 (GS wins this market, FV ~65%). The upset case is GS #1 and SDS #2 (SDS wins this market, FV ~32%). The recent surge in SDS price to 34.5c suggests an over-hedging of a tightening race, leaving GS slightly undervalued.
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Movers
On March 18, 2026, the price of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) surged from ~15.5c to 34.5c within 12 hours, a greater than 100% increase. This shift reflects a drastic reversal in market sentiment, with traders hedging the risk that SDS might lose the 1st place spot (falling to 2nd), or a correction against the previously overheated GS price.
From March 17 to March 18, 2026, Freedom Movement (GS) dropped significantly from a high of 80c to 59c. This inverse move to SDS suggests the market is no longer viewing the 'SDS #1 / GS #2' outcome as a guaranteed lock, pricing in higher uncertainty.
From March 15 to March 16, 2026, multiple fringe parties (e.g., Social Democrats, Democrats) crashed from artificial highs of 20c+ down to ~1c, marking a return to fundamental reality and rational liquidity.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket's current pricing (SDS Yes at 34.5c) implies a ~35% probability of SDS finishing 2nd, which effectively means a 35% chance that SDS loses the election (and GS wins 1st). However, mainstream polling (based on historical trends from agencies like Mediana or Parsifal) typically shows SDS leading GS by a solid 5-10% margin with a high floor. The market appears to be overpricing the probability of a GS upset victory, or large capital flows are temporarily distorting the price away from fundamental polling data.
