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Value
Edge
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
YesNo
Freedom Movement (GS)
YesNo
Social Democrats (SD)
YesNo
Democrats (D)
YesNo
Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS)
YesNo
Slovenian National Party (SNS)
YesNo
Resni.ca (Res)
YesNo
Our Country (ND)
YesNo
Prerod (PVP)
YesNo
Vesna – Green Party (Vesna)
YesNo
Slovenian People’s Party (SLS)
YesNo
Party of Generations (SG)
YesNo
New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
YesNo
The Left (Levica)
YesNo
Mi, socialisti! (Mi!)
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although SDS's price has plummeted to 74.5c in the last 24 hours, this appears to be pre-election market panic (election on March 22, only 4 days left) or profit-taking rather than a fundamental reversal. Previous analysis indicated SDS held a double-digit polling lead; under a proportional representation system, the probability of the incumbent GS (Freedom Movement) closing this gap in just a few days is extremely low. The market seems to be overreacting to the risk of 'tactical voting' (voters swinging to GS solely to block SDS). However, the market rules rely on 'most seats won,' not 'forming a government.' Even if GS narrows the gap via tactical voting, surpassing SDS in seat count would require a statistical anomaly. Thus, SDS's current low price offers positive expected value, with fair value remaining around 85c.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) plunged from 86.5c to 74.5c, while Freedom Movement (GS) surged from 13.5c to 23.5c. Reason: As the final countdown to Election Day (March 22) begins, the market exhibited typical 'pre-election anxiety,' with traders likely panic-selling due to fears of tactical voting consolidation against SDS, or overreacting to liquidity conditions.
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, SDS consolidated narrowly between 87.5c and 86.5c, while GS ticked up slightly to 13.5c. Reason: The market entered a final consolidation phase before the election, with traders making micro-adjustments based on minor polling updates, though the overall trend remained unchanged.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, SDS recovered from 82.5c to 87.5c, while GS dropped from 14.5c to 11.5c. Reason: As election week officially began, weekend hedging sentiment faded, and the market refocused on SDS's solid polling lead.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream polling data shows SDS maintaining a stable lead (usually double digits or high single digits), which should correspond to a win probability of over 85%. However, prediction market prices (SDS 74.5c vs GS 23.5c) imply a nearly 1/4 chance of a GS upset, which contradicts the gap in public polling. The market appears to be pricing in a 'hidden reversal not captured by polls' or an extreme tactical voting scenario, diverging from the consensus that SDS is the clear favorite for the most seats.
