Solana above ___ on April 4? - AI Found +23.9¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$14.6k Vol|

4 days 22 hrs

Solana above ___ on April 4? - AI Found +23.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+23.9¢

80(No)

+3.6¢

90(No)

+1.5¢

120(Yes)

Solana above ___ on April 4? AI analysis: • +23.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$3.1m Vol|

Bundesliga Winner

Top Undervalued

Bayern Munich(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With about 58 days left until the settlement of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season, Bayern Munich's price...

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Since Borussia Dortmund (BVB.DE) is the only major publicly listed Bundesliga club, its stock price is highly sensitive to match results and league standings. An unexpected championship win for Dortmund (especially if odds are low late in the season) would likely trigger a significant price increase (Score 3). For Bayern Munich or other non-listed clubs, there are no direct equity proxies. Thus, the primary hedging asset is Dortmund's stock.

Analyze the latest order book and liquidity depth behind the $3.14M volume for the 'Bundesliga Winner 2025-26' market on Polymarket, and assess whether the implied probabilities for favorites like Bayern Munich or Leverkusen align with current team fundamentals and transfer market expectations.

Sports|$1.4m Vol|

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Winner

Top Undervalued

Ausar Thompson(No)

Victor Wembanyama(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 30, 2026, Victor Wembanyama's price remains stable at a high of 93.3 cents, reflecting t...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the DPOY event, analyze the order book depth, latest trading prices, and user discussions for top contenders (e.g., Wembanyama, Gobert), and assess if current odds fully reflect late-season performance and media narratives.

World|$1.6m Vol|

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Top Undervalued

No meeting before 2027(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 300 days remaining until the end of 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with ...

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While a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin is a topic of global interest, the probability of a direct meeting is currently viewed as low due to the intense ongoing war ('exotic' due to low probability), making this prediction highly speculative.

If a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is confirmed, it would be seen as a major signal that the Russia-Ukraine conflict might be heading towards a ceasefire or negotiations, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium. Crude Oil prices would likely plunge due to eased supply fears, Gold as a safe haven would drop, and equities (like the S&P 500) would likely rise on improved risk sentiment.

[Opportunity Cost: Annualized Return on Long-term Lock-up] Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, if betting on the high-probability option 'No meeting before 2027,' calculate the actual annualized return on investment (ROI) if funds are locked until expiration. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if placing a long-duration bet at the current odds offers sufficient capital efficiency advantage.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket page for this event, focusing on the liquidity disparity between the 'No meeting before 2027' option and popular venues like 'Turkey' or 'Saudi Arabia.' Combining the current stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war with the latest diplomatic statements, assess whether the market is overestimating the probability of 'No meeting.' Is there a potential risk of drastic odds volatility driven by sudden peace summit news?

[Reality Barriers: ICC Warrant & Diplomatic Immunity Analysis] Search for the latest enforcement status of the ICC arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin and verify which countries in the options (e.g., Italy, Switzerland, Hungary) are signatories to the Rome Statute. Analyze how this legal obligation practically hinders Putin from traveling to these jurisdictions, and whether there are specific diplomatic immunity precedents for 'peace negotiations' that would eliminate or retain certain geographic options.

[Opportunity Cost: Annualized Return on Long-term Lock-up] Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, if betting on the high-probability option 'No meeting before 2027,' calculate the actual annualized return on investment (ROI) if funds are locked until expiration. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if placing a long-duration bet at the current odds offers sufficient capital efficiency advantage.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket page for this event, focusing on the liquidity disparity between the 'No meeting before 2027' option and popular venues like 'Turkey' or 'Saudi Arabia.' Combining the current stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war with the latest diplomatic statements, assess whether the market is overestimating the probability of 'No meeting.' Is there a potential risk of drastic odds volatility driven by sudden peace summit news?

Politics|$1.0m Vol|

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares of the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Sweden Democrats (SD), and Moderate Party (M). Plan Description: The combined Yes price for S, SD, and M is currently around 98.3c. Purchasing Yes shares for all thr...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) continues to maintain a significant lead in polls, stabilizi...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for 'Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)' vs 'Sweden Democrats (SD)', and update the assessment of whether current odds fairly reflect polling data given the long horizon to the 2026 election.

Geopolitics|$1.9m Vol|

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on the 'March 31' option. Plan Description: With just over 1 day left until the March 31 resolution, there are no credible frontline reports ind...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

With just over 1 day until March 31 and no major frontline breakthroughs, the probability of capture...

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There is a critical discrepancy regarding the timeline: the rule text explicitly states a deadline of 'December 31, 2025', while the market options (Feb/Mar) and settlement date (2026) indicate 2026. This inconsistency creates high resolution risk. Additionally, relying on the ISW map icon being 'shaded red' introduces latency risk, as map updates often lag behind actual ground control.

[Decision & Action] Advance Rate & Implied Probability Calculation: Measure the straight-line distance from the current Russian frontline to the Lyman railroad station (approx. 10-15km) and calculate the "minimum daily average advance rate" required to reach the red zone by a specific deadline (e.g., April 30). Compare this figure with the actual historical advance rate in this sector over the past three months to mathematically assess if the current "Yes" odds offer positive expected value (+EV).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the "Lyman Capture" expiration dates (e.g., April 30, Dec 31, 2025). Combining this with recent reports from the Terny and Yampolivka frontlines, determine if the current pricing reflects a substantive stagnation of the Russian offensive or merely mispricing due to low liquidity.

[Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check (ISW vs DeepState): Compare the primary resolution source (ISW interactive map) with the backup source (DeepStateMap) regarding control of the Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna railroad station. Given that ISW updates often have a "confirmation lag" of several days behind battlefield reality, what specific settlement risks does this pose for options expiring in the near term (e.g., Feb/Mar)?

[Decision & Action] Advance Rate & Implied Probability Calculation: Measure the straight-line distance from the current Russian frontline to the Lyman railroad station (approx. 10-15km) and calculate the "minimum daily average advance rate" required to reach the red zone by a specific deadline (e.g., April 30). Compare this figure with the actual historical advance rate in this sector over the past three months to mathematically assess if the current "Yes" odds offer positive expected value (+EV).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the "Lyman Capture" expiration dates (e.g., April 30, Dec 31, 2025). Combining this with recent reports from the Terny and Yampolivka frontlines, determine if the current pricing reflects a substantive stagnation of the Russian offensive or merely mispricing due to low liquidity.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

80

YesNo

74¢

32¢

44.1¢

55.9¢

0¢

+23.9¢

90

YesNo

16¢

86¢

10.4¢

89.6¢

0¢

+3.6¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0720, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0790, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0030, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0790, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0200, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$3.1m Vol|

Bundesliga Winner

Top Undervalued

Bayern Munich(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With about 58 days left until the settlement of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season, Bayern Munich's price...

Log in to see more

Since Borussia Dortmund (BVB.DE) is the only major publicly listed Bundesliga club, its stock price is highly sensitive to match results and league standings. An unexpected championship win for Dortmund (especially if odds are low late in the season) would likely trigger a significant price increase (Score 3). For Bayern Munich or other non-listed clubs, there are no direct equity proxies. Thus, the primary hedging asset is Dortmund's stock.

Analyze the latest order book and liquidity depth behind the $3.14M volume for the 'Bundesliga Winner 2025-26' market on Polymarket, and assess whether the implied probabilities for favorites like Bayern Munich or Leverkusen align with current team fundamentals and transfer market expectations.

Sports|$1.4m Vol|

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Winner

Top Undervalued

Ausar Thompson(No)

Victor Wembanyama(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 30, 2026, Victor Wembanyama's price remains stable at a high of 93.3 cents, reflecting t...

Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the DPOY event, analyze the order book depth, latest trading prices, and user discussions for top contenders (e.g., Wembanyama, Gobert), and assess if current odds fully reflect late-season performance and media narratives.

World|$1.6m Vol|

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Top Undervalued

No meeting before 2027(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 300 days remaining until the end of 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with ...

Log in to see more

While a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin is a topic of global interest, the probability of a direct meeting is currently viewed as low due to the intense ongoing war ('exotic' due to low probability), making this prediction highly speculative.

If a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is confirmed, it would be seen as a major signal that the Russia-Ukraine conflict might be heading towards a ceasefire or negotiations, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium. Crude Oil prices would likely plunge due to eased supply fears, Gold as a safe haven would drop, and equities (like the S&P 500) would likely rise on improved risk sentiment.

[Opportunity Cost: Annualized Return on Long-term Lock-up] Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, if betting on the high-probability option 'No meeting before 2027,' calculate the actual annualized return on investment (ROI) if funds are locked until expiration. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if placing a long-duration bet at the current odds offers sufficient capital efficiency advantage.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket page for this event, focusing on the liquidity disparity between the 'No meeting before 2027' option and popular venues like 'Turkey' or 'Saudi Arabia.' Combining the current stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war with the latest diplomatic statements, assess whether the market is overestimating the probability of 'No meeting.' Is there a potential risk of drastic odds volatility driven by sudden peace summit news?

[Reality Barriers: ICC Warrant & Diplomatic Immunity Analysis] Search for the latest enforcement status of the ICC arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin and verify which countries in the options (e.g., Italy, Switzerland, Hungary) are signatories to the Rome Statute. Analyze how this legal obligation practically hinders Putin from traveling to these jurisdictions, and whether there are specific diplomatic immunity precedents for 'peace negotiations' that would eliminate or retain certain geographic options.

[Opportunity Cost: Annualized Return on Long-term Lock-up] Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, if betting on the high-probability option 'No meeting before 2027,' calculate the actual annualized return on investment (ROI) if funds are locked until expiration. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if placing a long-duration bet at the current odds offers sufficient capital efficiency advantage.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket page for this event, focusing on the liquidity disparity between the 'No meeting before 2027' option and popular venues like 'Turkey' or 'Saudi Arabia.' Combining the current stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war with the latest diplomatic statements, assess whether the market is overestimating the probability of 'No meeting.' Is there a potential risk of drastic odds volatility driven by sudden peace summit news?

Politics|$1.0m Vol|

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares of the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Sweden Democrats (SD), and Moderate Party (M). Plan Description: The combined Yes price for S, SD, and M is currently around 98.3c. Purchasing Yes shares for all thr...

Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) continues to maintain a significant lead in polls, stabilizi...

Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for 'Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)' vs 'Sweden Democrats (SD)', and update the assessment of whether current odds fairly reflect polling data given the long horizon to the 2026 election.

Geopolitics|$1.9m Vol|

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on the 'March 31' option. Plan Description: With just over 1 day left until the March 31 resolution, there are no credible frontline reports ind...

Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

With just over 1 day until March 31 and no major frontline breakthroughs, the probability of capture...

Log in to see more

There is a critical discrepancy regarding the timeline: the rule text explicitly states a deadline of 'December 31, 2025', while the market options (Feb/Mar) and settlement date (2026) indicate 2026. This inconsistency creates high resolution risk. Additionally, relying on the ISW map icon being 'shaded red' introduces latency risk, as map updates often lag behind actual ground control.

[Decision & Action] Advance Rate & Implied Probability Calculation: Measure the straight-line distance from the current Russian frontline to the Lyman railroad station (approx. 10-15km) and calculate the "minimum daily average advance rate" required to reach the red zone by a specific deadline (e.g., April 30). Compare this figure with the actual historical advance rate in this sector over the past three months to mathematically assess if the current "Yes" odds offer positive expected value (+EV).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the "Lyman Capture" expiration dates (e.g., April 30, Dec 31, 2025). Combining this with recent reports from the Terny and Yampolivka frontlines, determine if the current pricing reflects a substantive stagnation of the Russian offensive or merely mispricing due to low liquidity.

[Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check (ISW vs DeepState): Compare the primary resolution source (ISW interactive map) with the backup source (DeepStateMap) regarding control of the Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna railroad station. Given that ISW updates often have a "confirmation lag" of several days behind battlefield reality, what specific settlement risks does this pose for options expiring in the near term (e.g., Feb/Mar)?

[Decision & Action] Advance Rate & Implied Probability Calculation: Measure the straight-line distance from the current Russian frontline to the Lyman railroad station (approx. 10-15km) and calculate the "minimum daily average advance rate" required to reach the red zone by a specific deadline (e.g., April 30). Compare this figure with the actual historical advance rate in this sector over the past three months to mathematically assess if the current "Yes" odds offer positive expected value (+EV).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the "Lyman Capture" expiration dates (e.g., April 30, Dec 31, 2025). Combining this with recent reports from the Terny and Yampolivka frontlines, determine if the current pricing reflects a substantive stagnation of the Russian offensive or merely mispricing due to low liquidity.

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