Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature at Buenos Aires Ezeiza Airport (S...

While the title broadly states 'Buenos Aires', the resolution explicitly relies on the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport (Ezeiza) station. Ezeiza is located in the suburbs and often records different temperatures than downtown stations, potentially trapping traders who only check general city forecasts. Additionally, the rounding to whole degrees Celsius introduces edge-case risks.

2026-04-01 to 2026-04-02, the price of '28°C' surged from 19.5c to 38c, '29°C' surged from 9.5c to 34c, and '26°C' plunged from 20.5c to 3.25c. This is because the latest meteorological data on the expiration day significantly revised the expected high temperature upwards. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of '27°C' surged from 26c to 41c, because the latest short-term 48-hour weather forecast further confirmed this temperature range, prompting capital to concentrate on the most likely outcome. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '25°C' surged from 5c to 22.5c, while '28°C' and '29°C' plunged. This was due to earlier forecasts ruling out higher temperatures and narrowing the expected high to the 25°C-27°C range.

Based on the latest weather forecasts and model data, the high temperature at Los Angeles Internatio...

Predicting exact daily high temperatures is a niche topic in general prediction markets, closer to specialized weather derivatives than mainstream news. However, as a common objective natural phenomenon, it is not completely bizarre.

From 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-02, the price of 66-67°F surged from 15c to 40.5c as short-term weather forecasts revised the expected daytime high downward to a cooler range. From 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-02, the price of 68-69°F plummeted from 49.5c to 33.5c because, as the date drew near, models ruled out warming trends, significantly lowering the probability of this higher temperature bracket. From 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of 68-69°F surged from 23.5c to 36.5c as earlier forecasts converged and pointed to a 68°F high. From 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-01, the price of 64-65°F plummeted from a peak of 36c down to 10.5c due to forecasts showing a weaker cooling effect than initially expected. Between 2026-03-29 and 2026-03-30, the price for 64-65°F surged from 17c to a peak of 36c before falling back to 21.5c, reflecting temporary adjustments in model runs.

Based on real-time weather data on April 2, 2026, the high temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Internat...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific Chinese city (Chengdu) remains a niche and novelty concept in retail prediction markets. Ordinary people generally do not forecast such highly specific daily metrics.

April 2, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 27c to 86c, while the 22°C and 23°C options plummeted from 40.5c and 29.5c to 5c and 8.5c respectively, because actual intra-day weather data showed the high temperature essentially locked in around 21°C. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 22°C option rose from 23.5c to 31.5c, as weather models reached a stronger consensus on 22°C, attracting more capital. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 23°C option fell from 37c to 24.5c, because some of the latest forecasts slightly lowered the expected high temperature. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 17c to 33.5c, as weather models reached a stronger consensus on warmer temperatures as the date approached. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 7c, because colder forecasts were gradually discarded by the market. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 21°C option fell from 26.5c to 15.5c, due to capital shifting toward higher temperature options like 22°C and 23°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 19°C option crashed from 17c to 2.5c, as the probability of such low temperatures was largely ruled out in the latest short-term forecasts.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' shares on all available options. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently 97.55c, which is less than 100c. Assuming the final result falls into one of the listed buckets, this guarantees a risk-free profit. Plan Description: There is a direct arbitrage opportunity as the sum of all 'Yes' prices is 97.55c. By purchasing 'Yes...

With less than 5 hours to market resolution, current live weather observations and ultra-short-term ...

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common yet somewhat novelty topic in prediction markets. While the public checks the weather daily, betting on the precise whole degree for a specific date is a relatively niche and entertainment-driven activity.

April 1, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 50.5c to 82.5c, driven by the extreme proximity to the resolution deadline and ultra-short-term, high-resolution meteorological data confirming the high temperature will be capped within the 12°C bucket. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 29.5c to 50.5c, while 11°C retreated from 38.5c to 29.5c, and 13°C plummeted before settling around 15.5c. This occurred because the Met Office and major forecast models released updated short-range predictions confirming that cooler Atlantic air and cloud cover will cap the high near 12°C, virtually eliminating higher temperature scenarios. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 13°C option climbed from 30c to 43.5c before dipping slightly, while the 14°C option spiked from 12c to 29c on the 29th before quickly falling back. Options for 12°C and 11°C also saw intraday fluctuations exceeding 10c. These frequent movements were primarily driven by continuous updates in major meteorological models narrowing the expected high temperature.

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at New York's LaGuardia Airport on A...

Mainstream weather forecasts consistently predict a high of around 65-67°F for April 5. However, the '86°F or higher' option trades at a surprisingly high 22.5 cents, which severely diverges from actual meteorological reality, likely due to low liquidity and irrational limit orders.