Solana above ___ on March 28?
Crypto|$10.4k Vol|
time3 days 5 hrs

Solana above ___ on March 28? - AI Mispricing Alert

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Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+7.7¢
100(Yes)
+4.6¢
90(Yes)
+1.5¢
80(Yes)

Solana above ___ on March 28? AI analysis: • +7.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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What will Trump post this week? (March 23 - March 29)
Trump|$87.4k Vol|
time3 days 13 hrs

What will Trump post this week? (March 23 - March 29)

Top Undervalued
+52.5¢
Nasty(Yes)
+34.5¢
NATO(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
It is currently March 24, 2026. Trump has just announced a 'complete resolution' with Iran regarding...
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Exotics
This is a classic 'Prop Bet' focused on the specific social media behavior of a public figure. It is unrelated to mainstream finance or sports, relying purely on entertaining predictions of an individual's behavioral patterns, making it a high-novelty market.
Hedging
DJT
This event is directly correlated with Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), as engagement on Truth Social drives its value. A negative post regarding 'Boeing' could cause short-term intraday noise for BA stock. Furthermore, rhetoric involving 'Ayatollah' or 'Terrorist' suggests geopolitical tension, potentially carrying minor sentiment impact for Crude Oil.
Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'NATO' surged from 46c to 86c (retracing to 73.5c) due to Trump's threat to 'throw Spain out of NATO' and impose tariffs over defense spending, fueling high expectations for the term. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Panican' anomalously surged from 28c to 63c despite a lack of clear public news or posts, possibly driven by insider speculation, expected typos, or market manipulation. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Terrorist' rose from 46c to 79c, attributed to Trump's threats to arrest Somali immigrants (linked to Ilhan Omar) during the DHS shutdown and continued rhetoric against Iran as a 'state sponsor of terrorism'. March 20, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Nasty' maintained high levels above 65c (up from 41c), reflecting sustained reaction to Mueller's death and attacks on Democratic congresswomen during the shutdown.
Divergence
A major divergence exists in the 'Panican' option; its high price of 63c implies a near-certain occurrence, yet mainstream media and public searches show no specific catalyst for this term (or typo), suggesting potential irrational exuberance or information asymmetry. Additionally, 'Free Tina Peters' trades at 47c; while Trump posted the components, strict textual resolution might result in a 'No' if they weren't consecutive, posing a mispricing risk.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for 'What will Trump post this week? (March 23-29)' to analyze the order book depth and spread for key terms like 'FBI' and 'Nasty', and assess the fair value and potential arbitrage risks based on the latest user discussions on Truth Social.
Highest temperature in Munich on March 25?
Weather|$70.2k Vol|
time1 hrs 9 mins

Highest temperature in Munich on March 25?

Top Undervalued
+63¢
15°C(No)
+60¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 48 hours until resolution, major meteorological sources (Google Weather/The Weather Channe...
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Exotics
While weather forecasting is common, betting on the precise temperature of a specific city on a specific date (especially for a non-extreme weather event) is a niche market. Outside of weather enthusiasts or locals, few people ponder this specific parameter, increasing its novelty or 'exotic' nature.
Movers
On March 23, 2026, the price of **15°C** experienced significant volatility (22c -> 33.5c -> 26.5c), reflecting market speculation on the "slightly better than expected weather" scenario as 14°C solidified as the baseline. March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of **14°C** surged from 18c to 42c (before settling at 38c). The reason is that as the date approached, short-term meteorological models (especially ECMWF and GFS) converged from previous divergence to a consensus of 14°C, eliminating earlier uncertainty. March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of **13°C** plummeted from 27c to 12c. The reason is that previous models were slightly cooler, but the latest updates nudged the expected high up by about 1 degree, shifting 13°C from "most likely" to a "secondary hedge."
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream weather forecasts (Wunderground/TWC, AccuWeather) explicitly predict a specific value of 57-58°F (14°C) accompanied by precipitation, which typically limits the potential for significant temperature overperformance. However, the prediction market currently assigns a combined probability of nearly 45% to 15°C (26.5%) and 16°C (18%), which is meteorologically unjustified. The market appears to be overestimating the right-tail risk (warmer temps) while underestimating the certainty of the central 14°C forecast.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest forecast data for Munich (EDDM) on March 25, 2026, from Wunderground, and considering the extremely low volume ($2.0), analyze the order book to determine if there is any real liquidity and reassess the fair value and liquidity risks of this market.
Next Prime Minister of Faroe Islands
Elections|$25.5k Vol|
time13 hrs 9 mins

Next Prime Minister of Faroe Islands

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Beinir Johannesen(Yes)
+4.5¢
Aksel V. Johannesen(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With the Faroese general election on March 26 entering the final countdown (only 2 days left), marke...
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Exotics
For Faroese locals or Nordic politics observers, this is a standard political prediction. However, for the majority of global prediction market participants, the Faroe Islands (an autonomous territory of Denmark) election is a niche event with relatively low mainstream attention.
Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, Beinir Johannesen's price surged from 78.5c to 90c, while Aksel V. Johannesen's price plunged from 10.5c to 0.2c. The reason is that as election day (March 26) nears, consensus on a victory for the right-wing Fólkaflokkurin party has solidified, causing capital to accelerate the dumping of incumbent PM Aksel's positions and flow into Beinir, creating a 'winner-takes-all' scenario. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, Beinir Johannesen's price surged from 62c to 79c, while Aksel V. Johannesen's price collapsed from 28.5c to 13.5c, and Bárður á Steig Nielsen's price crashed from 29c to 4.5c. The reason was that polling data confirmed the absolute dominance of the right-wing coalition, causing the market to lose all confidence in centrist and incumbent candidates.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest Order Book data for the 'Next Prime Minister of Faroe Islands' market (currently only $12.625 volume), analyze the bid-ask depth and spread, and given the virtually non-existent liquidity, assess whether current odds are significantly distorted and evaluate the slippage risks and capital lock-up costs of entering a position before the election results.
Peru Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Politics|$11.1k Vol|
time17 days 13 hrs

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Top Undervalued
+15¢
Rafael López Aliaga(No)
+10.3¢
Jorge Nieto(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on Datum polls from March 2026 (simulated/future data), Rafael López Aliaga (11.4%) and Keiko ...
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Hedging
SCCO
BAP
Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer, making its politics highly relevant to mining policy and sovereign risk. This event determines the runoff lineup (e.g., Moderate vs. Radical), which directly drives volatility for major Peruvian plays like Southern Copper (SCCO) and Credicorp (BAP). An unexpected radical candidate securing 2nd place would trigger a negative repricing in these assets.
Divergence
Severe divergence exists. Market pricing implies that about 20 candidates each have a >40% chance of finishing second (total probability >800%), which is mathematically impossible. Mainstream polls (Datum, March 2026) show a fragmented but stratified race: RLA and Keiko (~11%) lead, followed by Chau (~6.5%) and Grozo (~5%), with others polling very low. Market prices are completely disconnected from the fundamental polling data.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Peru Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place'. Given the extremely low trading volume ($105.0), analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth to determine if the odds for top contenders (e.g., Keiko Fujimori or López Aliaga) are mispriced due to illiquidity, and assess the slippage risk for entering a position.
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
Weather|$117.7k Vol|
time1 hrs 9 mins

Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?

Top Undervalued
+49.5¢
33°C or below(No)
+40¢
34°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While the Wunderground model forecasts 91°F (~32.8°C), supporting '33°C', the local authority IMD (I...
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Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '33°C or below' slipped from 74.5c to 68c, while '34°C' rose from 22.5c to 27.5c. This shift occurred as IMD released an explicit forecast of 34°C and AccuWeather maintained 94°F (34°C), causing the market to correct the overly bearish sentiment lingering from the previous cold snap. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '33°C or below' skyrocketed from 26.5c to 71.5c due to an unexpected cold snap in Lucknow on March 21 (high of only 23.5°C), which shattered previous heatwave expectations. This forced the market to radically reprice based on the new low baseline and IMD's 'gradual rise' forecast.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market price (68%) strongly favors '33°C or below', anchoring on the specific Wunderground model forecast of 91°F. However, the local authority IMD explicitly forecasts a high of 34°C for the 25th in their March 24 bulletin. Historically, the resolution source's actual station observations align closer to IMD ground truth than Wunderground's model predictions.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book depth given the low liquidity ($135 volume), and update the assessment of fair value and arbitrage strategies based on the latest weather model forecasts for Lucknow on March 25.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
100
YesNo
13¢
87¢
20.7¢
79.3¢
+7.7¢
0¢
90
YesNo
65¢
35¢
69.6¢
30.4¢
+4.6¢
0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0010, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0280, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0550, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0280, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0170, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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Solana above ___ on March 28? - AI Mispricing Alert