The resolution source, Wunderground, specifically forecasts a high of 65°F (~18.3°C) for Wellington ...

March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '20°C or higher' crashed from 64.5c to 19c, while '18°C' and '19°C' surged. The reason is that as the date approached, global weather models (GFS/ECMWF) and Wunderground's own forecast updated to show cooler temperatures (16-18°C), undermining the credibility of the earlier MetService 20°C forecast. Capital rapidly retreated from the extreme high option towards the median values. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '20°C or higher' skyrocketed from 26c to 64.5c, driven by MetService issuing a specific 20°C forecast, which the market treated as the gold standard.

Market pricing (centered on 18-19°C) is significantly warmer than mainstream global media models (Google/Weather.com forecast 16-17°C). This indicates prediction market participants place higher weight on the historical accuracy of the local MetService or Wunderground's own 65°F (18°C) forecast, dismissing the generic Google forecast as too cold.

With less than 1 day to expiration, market prices are highly concentrated on 17°C (40.5%) and 18°C (...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 28.5c to 43c, and '18°C' surged from 9.5c to 29c, while '16°C' crashed from 38.5c to 13c. The reason is that as the date approached the final day, short-term weather forecast models revised the high temperature prediction upwards, indicating that the cooling effect of the rain would not be as strong as previously anticipated. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' crashed from 25.5c to 3c, and '12°C' crashed from 16.5c to 3.5c, while '16°C' surged from 16.5c to 32.5c. The reason is that weather forecast models (like GFS, ECMWF) reached a strong consensus, eliminating earlier possibilities of extreme heat or cold and locking in a 'rainy and cool (15-17°C)' scenario.

Based on the latest forecasts from Google Weather (65°F), AccuWeather (67-72°F), and 11Alive (68°F),...

Significant divergence detected. The market prices '55°F or below' as the most likely outcome (25.5%), which directly contradicts all major meteorological sources (Google, Weather.com, AccuWeather, 11Alive) that consistently forecast highs between 65°F and 72°F. The market appears to be hedging against an extreme outlier model, but such pricing is highly irrational given the 4-day proximity to the event.

With less than 19 hours to expiration, market pricing is heavily concentrated on 27°C and 28°C. Acco...

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '27°C' surged from 19.5c to 34.5c, and '28°C' surged from 13.5c to 32c, while '26°C' dropped from 25.5c to 12.5c, '24°C' crashed from 17.5c to 1.1c, and '25°C' plummeted from 19.5c to 3.35c. Reason: As the resolution date approached (less than 1 day), meteorological models significantly shifted and converged on their high-temperature forecast for Buenos Aires on March 26. The possibility of cooler temperatures (24-26°C) was completely ruled out, firmly locking the consensus into the warmer 27-28°C band. This triggered a massive capital rotation into these two options, causing outlier option prices to collapse. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '28°C' surged from 13.5c to 28c, while '24°C' crashed from 17.5c to 2c, and '32°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 2.9c. Reason: The market underwent a massive repricing event. Previously, there was significant mispricing on both extreme heat (32°C+) and cooler outcomes (24°C). As the event date approached (within 3 days), meteorological models (likely GFS/ECMWF) converged, eliminating both the extreme heat outlier and the cooler hypothesis. The consensus locked onto a warmer band of 27-28°C, causing these options to skyrocket while outlier options collapsed.

Based on the latest market dynamics and near-term meteorological updates, the anticipated impact of ...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 13.5c to 28.5c, while '74-75°F' crashed from 27.5c to 3.3c, as updated weather models indicated a weaker cold front impact, driving forecasted temperatures significantly higher. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '71°F or below' surged from ~25c to 44c, as market sentiment shifted aggressively towards an earlier arrival of the cold front, betting on suppressed temperatures for Thursday. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' crashed from 49.5c (likely initial illiquidity) to 12c, as the historic heatwave (Mar 20-22) concluded and weather models confirmed a significant cooling trend for Thursday.