All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$15M
YesNo
$5M
YesNo
$40M
YesNo
$100M
YesNo
$160M
YesNo
$200M
YesNo
$140M
YesNo
$80M
YesNo
$60M
YesNo
$120M
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 21:08 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The analysis for Space (@intodotspace) must strictly distinguish this project (a prediction market protocol) from the similarly named Spacecoin (satellite DePIN project). The Space prediction market project completed a controversial ICO in Jan 2026, raising $20M against a $2.5M soft cap, implying an FDV of ~$69M. However, the prediction market pricing is deeply pessimistic, assigning only ~20% probability to the FDV exceeding $40M. This indicates a severe lack of trust in the team and expectations of heavy sell pressure or a 'soft rug' post-TGE. Nonetheless, given the $20M treasury, the theoretical floor should be around $15M-$20M unless the treasury is drained. Thus, the $15M option is undervalued (Market 40c vs Fair 55c), and the $5M option primarily reflects the probability of a successful launch, which should be higher given the capital raised.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No $100M' + Buy 'Yes $80M'
Plan Description:
There is a clear Monotonicity Violation in the market. Theoretically, the probability of FDV > $100M cannot be higher than FDV > $80M. However, 'Yes $100M' is currently priced higher (12c) than 'Yes $80M' (10.65c). A risk-free arbitrage can be constructed: Buy 'Yes $80M' (cost 10.65c) and Buy 'No $100M' (cost 88c) for a total cost of 98.65c. Regardless of the outcome, this combination pays out at least 100c, locking in a risk-free profit of 1.35c.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 135¢
|Annualized yield: 1.7%
Exotics
This is a market on the tokenomics of a specific crypto project (Space). While FDV predictions are not rare in the industry, it is a relatively niche and specific vertical knowledge for the general market, and the project (IntoDotSpace) may currently be in an early stage.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. According to public information, the Space project raised funds in its ICO at an implied FDV of ~$69M. However, the prediction market currently assigns only a ~15% probability that the FDV will hold above $60M. This indicates that prediction market participants strongly believe the primary market investors overpaid, or they anticipate severe sell-off and price collapse post-unlock. The market is effectively pricing in a scenario where the token trades significantly below its ICO price.
