Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Geopolitics|$14.2k Vol|
time58 days 21 hrs

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - AI Found +21.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 23:46
Top Undervalued
+21.5¢
(Yes)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? AI analysis: • +21.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent market news from late March 2026 indicates that while the Strait of Hormuz saw a near halt in...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
Crypto|$14.6k Vol|
time274 days 2 hrs

Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?

Top Undervalued
+4¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of early April 2026, cumulative Pump.fun buybacks continue to progress steadily, further closing ...
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Rule Risk
Medium risk exists. Resolution relies entirely on a specific metric from the project's proprietary dashboard (fees.pump.fun). Risks include: 1) The team has explicitly stated they may "modify or discontinue" the buyback plan (e.g., pivoting to dividends) at any time, which would halt the count and result in a 'No'; 2) The dashboard could go offline or change its methodology; 3) The "USD" valuation depends on volatile asset prices without a defined external exchange rate source.
Exotics
Specific crypto protocol operational metric. While Pump.fun is a leading app in the Solana ecosystem, predicting the 'Total Buyback Amount' is a niche DeFi/Meme sector statistic, not a mainstream topic.
Hedging
SOL
Pump.fun is one of the largest fee generators on the Solana network. Hitting $500M in buybacks implies massive sustained trading volume and revenue, which is structurally bullish for SOL price and network fundamentals. Conversely, missed targets could signal the end of the on-chain meme mania, acting as a bearish signal for SOL.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions. Combine this with the latest buyback data from fees.pump.fun (Total $PUMP Purchases) to assess if the current fair value is reasonable and evaluate slippage risks due to low liquidity ($4k volume).
Ohio Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$11.3k Vol|
time32 days 21 hrs

Ohio Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.9¢
Sherrod Brown(Yes)
+1.6¢
Greg Landsman(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The landscape for the May 5, 2026, Ohio Democratic Senate Primary is fully locked in. Since the Febr...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book for the 'Ohio Democratic Senate Primary' to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown, and assess if the current pricing accurately reflects the specific context of the special election triggered by JD Vance's Vice Presidency.
Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?
Crypto|$20.3k Vol|
time274 days 2 hrs

Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on DeFiLlama Open Interest (OI) data, Hyperliquid currently holds an absolute dominant positio...
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Exotics
This is a market share competition question specific to the crypto derivatives sector. While very niche (exotic) for the general public, Hyperliquid's dominance is a hot topic for crypto natives and DeFi traders. Thus, it ranks as moderately exotic.
Hedging
HYPE
This event is directly related to the fundamentals of Hyperliquid and its ecosystem token (HYPE). If Hyperliquid is flipped in 2026 (Yes result), it would be a strong signal of weakening competitive moats, likely causing a drop in HYPE price (Score 3). Competitors (like dYdX or Solana-based DEXs like Jupiter/Drift) might benefit, though the correlation is weaker. The impact on broad market assets (BTC/ETH) is negligible.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest derivatives DEX Open Interest (OI) data from DeFiLlama to quantify the current multiple of Hyperliquid's lead over the runner-up (e.g., dYdX, Jupiter, or GMX), and analyze if Polymarket odds are underestimating the tail risk of a "dark horse" exchange emerging throughout 2026.
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Culture|$16.1k Vol|
time3 days 21 hrs

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
45+(Yes)
+4.5¢
50+(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is currently extremely pessimistic about the Rotten Tomatoes score for the upcoming Super...
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Movers
2026-04-01 - 2026-04-02, the price of the '45+' option plummeted from 83.5c to 35.5c. The reason is likely the emergence of extremely negative early reviews or leaked internal reception for the movie. 2026-03-31 - 2026-04-02, the price of the '50+' option plummeted from 51.5c to 5.5c. This is also due to the extremely poor early reception, making the market believe that a score of 50%+ is highly unlikely.
AI Analysis
What are the specific resolution rules and potential risks if the Rotten Tomatoes 'All Critics' score page experiences update delays or format changes before April 6, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets March 31 - April 7, 2026?
Culture|$4.6m Vol|
time5 days 13 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets March 31 - April 7, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
280-299(No)
+0.8¢
420-439(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With over 33 hours of tracking elapsed (roughly 20% of the total duration), Musk's effective posting...
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Rule Risk
There are moderate resolution risks. First, the distinction between standard replies (excluded) and main feed replies (included) can cause disputes. Second, counting deleted posts strictly relies on the xtracker capturing them within ~5 minutes, introducing technical dependency risks.
Exotics
This is a quintessential novelty market. Outside of prediction market platforms, nobody systematically forecasts the exact number of posts a billionaire makes in a random week. It is purely designed for entertainment and speculation.
AI Analysis
Based on historical data from the past year, what is the actual weekly frequency of Elon Musk's main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts (excluding normal replies)?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
YesNo
43.5¢
56.5¢
65¢
35¢
+21.5¢
0¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
Crude Oil
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transit. A return to normal traffic (or continued disruption) directly reflects changes in the Middle East geopolitical risk premium, triggering substantial movements in crude oil prices, offering significant hedging value for oil traders.
Divergence
The market-implied probability (48%) shows a significant divergence from other platforms and mainstream expectations. According to media reports from March 24, odds on Kalshi for a return to normal (>60 threshold) by June 1 were already over 67%. Furthermore, news on March 31 highlighted renewed hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East. The current 48% pricing notably lags behind this optimistic outlook, reflecting an overly pessimistic assessment of geopolitical risks by investors on this platform.

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