The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transit. A return to normal traffic (or continued disruption) directly reflects changes in the Middle East geopolitical risk premium, triggering substantial movements in crude oil prices, offering significant hedging value for oil traders.

May 10, 2026 - May 16, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 23.5¢ to 5¢, driven by the rapidly approaching settlement date and the persistent failure of IMF Portwatch data to hit the 60 vessels/day 7-day moving average, causing market confidence to evaporate. May 10, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 23.5¢ to 7.5¢, driven by the rapidly approaching settlement date and the persistent failure of IMF Portwatch data to hit the 60 vessels/day 7-day moving average, causing market confidence to evaporate. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 28.5¢ to 11.5¢. This was driven by the further passage of time coupled with the persistent lack of recovery in IMF Portwatch data, causing market confidence in hitting the target by the end of May to continuously collapse. May 8, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 28.5¢ to 14.5¢, driven by the passage of time and the continued lack of recovery in the latest IMF Portwatch data, severely shattering market confidence in reaching the target by the end of May. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' slightly dropped from 28.5¢ to 23.5¢ as time passed without significant positive breakouts in the IMF Portwatch data to reach the target. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 16.5¢ to 29.5¢, likely because the market observed a rebound in the latest IMF Portwatch data or due to geopolitical news that renewed the possibility of reaching the 60 vessels/day threshold by the end of May. May 3, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' further drifted lower from 18.5¢ to around 16.5¢, as the end of May approaches with no signs of improvement in IMF Portwatch data, leading to a continued decline in market expectations. April 30, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' further declined from 27.5¢ to 18.5¢, as shipping data from IMF Portwatch remained sluggish into May, and the passage of time made hitting the target increasingly unlikely. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 36.5¢ to 20.5¢, driven by the approaching end-of-May deadline coupled with no significant improvement in shipping data, leading to a massive downward revision in market expectations of hitting the target. April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 37.5¢ to 27.5¢, driven by continued sluggishness in the latest IMF Portwatch shipping data, further cooling market expectations for a transit recovery by the end of May. April 23, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 44.5¢ to 34¢, driven by continued sluggishness in the latest IMF Portwatch shipping data, leading to a further loss of market confidence that transit volume will recover to the 60 vessels/day threshold by the end of May. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted continuously from 66.5¢ to 37.5¢, driven by newly published IMF Portwatch data consistently falling below expectations or a lack of easing in geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, massively shattering market confidence in the 7-day moving average hitting the 60 threshold by the end of May. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 59¢ to 66.5¢, driven by better-than-expected recent daily shipping data or a recovery in market sentiment, reigniting hopes of the 7-day moving average hitting the 60 threshold. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped steadily from 75¢ to 59¢, driven by softer-than-expected short-term shipping data or recurring geopolitical tensions, which cooled the previously extreme market optimism for a swift recovery in transit. April 16, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 63.5¢ to 75¢, as market expectations peaked regarding a rapid de-escalation of conflicts leading to a swift recovery in shipping traffic. April 13, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 38.5¢ to 63.5¢. This was driven by President Trump's remarks hinting at ending military conflict with Iran and withdrawing from the region within two to three weeks, significantly increasing the probability of shipping traffic normalizing (reaching the 60 vessels/day threshold) before the end of May. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 'Yes' option first spiked from 50.5¢ to 64.5¢, and then plummeted to 38.5¢. This was due to rapidly shifting market expectations regarding the easing or worsening of geopolitical tensions, or an unexpected sharp decline in the short-term shipping data updated by IMF Portwatch. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 'Yes' option crashed from 78.5¢ to 44¢, as early optimism for a swift return to normal shipping levels was dashed by disappointing actual data or a sudden escalation in regional tensions.