All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Enrique Leaño
YesNo
Wilber Chocamani
YesNo
Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López
YesNo
Richard Moscoso
YesNo
Franz Tata García
YesNo
Fátima Tardío
YesNo
Cecilia Calani
YesNo
Juan Antonio Jesús
YesNo
Cristian Sanabria
YesNo
Hebert Marcelo Terrazas
YesNo
Horacio Poppe
YesNo
Pablo Arízaga
YesNo
AI Insights:
13 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market structure has fundamentally shifted into a two-horse race between Enrique Leaño and Cristian Sanabria. 1) Enrique Leaño (incumbent) tripled in price in the last 24 hours (12c -> 42c), suggesting the market is finally pricing in his solid MAS partisan floor. With Horacio Poppe disqualified and the opposition vote failing to fully consolidate behind Sanabria, Leaño only needs a plurality to win; his fair value is near 45c. 2) Horacio Poppe has finally collapsed to 1.5c, confirming his exit; the destination of his votes is the driver of volatility. 3) Cristian Sanabria, while still the nominal favorite (47.5c), suffered a massive sell-off (dropping to 36c) coincident with Leaño's rise, indicating he is not a lock. 4) Previous 'dark horse' Fátima Tardío has been completely written off by the market (<1c).
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
For most non-Bolivians, this is a highly obscure political market. It concerns the mayoral election of the constitutional capital (not the administrative capital) of a landlocked South American country. While not absurd (like alien invasion), the attention level is extremely low and information asymmetry is high (requiring Spanish search skills and understanding of the post-2025 Bolivian political map), placing it firmly in the 'Exotic' category.
Movers
Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Enrique Leaño's price skyrocketed from 11.5c to 42.25c as the market reassessed vote distribution following Poppe's exit, realizing the incumbent's floor (MAS) is highly competitive against a fractured opposition.
Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Horacio Poppe's price crashed from 15c to 1.35c as the market finally fully priced in his disqualification by the TSE, ending speculative holding.
Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Cristian Sanabria experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 64.5c to 36c before rebounding to 44.5c, reflecting high uncertainty about where Poppe's former votes will land.
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Cristian Sanabria surged from 46c to a high of 73.5c before correcting, showing early speculative buying.
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, Fátima Tardío saw rollercoaster volatility from 4.5c to 17.6c and back, effectively zeroing out now.
Divergence
Significant internal divergence and reality correction observed. The market previously ignored Leaño (pricing him as low as 10c) while overvaluing the disqualified Poppe (held at 15c). The drastic correction in the last 24 hours (Leaño +30c, Poppe -14c) indicates the market was severely detached from fundamentals. Current pricing (Sanabria 47c vs Leaño 42c) aligns better with the common Bolivian election scenario where a split opposition allows the MAS candidate to compete closely via a plurality, though volatility remains extreme.
