How certain are current weather models in predicting Chengdu's highest temperature on May 5? With a few days left until expiration, can the forecasted temperature range still shift drastically?

Can you provide a brief trading plan for this Chengdu temperature prediction market? Please include an entry rationale based on the latest weather forecasts, target temperature options, and stop-loss conditions.

Based on historical weather data for Shanghai in early May, what is the statistical frequency of the daily high temperature hitting extreme options like '30°C or higher' or '20°C or below'?

Given the extremely low trading volume ($11) of this temperature market, how can I use a 'stink bid' strategy across different temperature options to capitalize on sudden weather forecast changes?

Search and analyze the historical high temperatures for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on May 5 over the past few years to calculate the probability distribution across the given temperature options (e.g., 35°C or higher vs. around 30°C).

Based on the current mainstream weather forecasts for Chongqing's highest temperature on May 5, how can we identify potential mispricing among the options and set an optimal limit order strategy with the best risk-reward ratio?

Based on the latest authoritative meteorological models (e.g., GFS/ECMWF), which temperature range has the highest probability for Ankara's peak temperature on May 5? Is the current market pricing reasonable?

Given the extremely low trading volume ($400) of this weather market, how should I place 'Stink Bids' across different temperature options to catch potential panic selling or fat-finger trades?

What do the latest short-term meteorological models (like ECMWF or GFS) forecast for Warsaw's peak temperature on May 5, and what weather variables (like cloud cover or cold fronts) could cause significant deviations?

Given the extremely low market volume of $19, how can I effectively place 'stink bids' on outlier temperature brackets like '30°C or higher' or '20°C or below' to capitalize on sudden weather anomalies?