All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Aubry Bracco
YesNo
Cirie Fields
YesNo
Joe Hunter
YesNo
Rizo Velovic
YesNo
Jonathan Young
YesNo
Emily Flippen
YesNo
Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick
YesNo
Benjamin "Coach" Wade
YesNo
Ozzy Lusth
YesNo
Kamilla Karthigesu
YesNo
Genevieve Mushaluk
YesNo
Rick Devens
YesNo
Chrissy Hofbeck
YesNo
Mike White
YesNo
Christian Hubicki
YesNo
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
YesNo
Charlie Davis
YesNo
Colby Donaldson
YesNo
Savannah Louie
YesNo
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
YesNo
Dee Valladares
YesNo
Angelina Keeley
YesNo
Quintavius "Q" Burdette
YesNo
Kyle Fraser
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 10:36 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on market performance, Aubry Bracco's price has consistently stabilized above 87c (peaking at 89c), which is a definitive 'spoiler-locked' signal in pre-recorded reality TV markets. Although there is no official confirmation, this price action typically indicates that insider information has leaked via specific channels (such as Reddit's SurvivorSpoilers or private Discords) and has been validated by capital. The prices of all other popular contestants (e.g., Cirie, Charlie) are maintained at very low noise levels (<4c) and are trending downward, suggesting the market views them as having no chance of winning. Any capital attempting to counter the Aubry narrative (such as the attempted Cirie rally) has been quickly absorbed. Therefore, fair value should tilt further toward Aubry at 95c, with the remaining contestants trending to zero or retaining only negligible hedge value.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream social media discussions (Twitter/X, Facebook Survivor groups) among casual viewers likely still focus on fan-favorite contestants (Cirie, Coach, Stephenie), unaware of spoilers. However, the prediction market price (Aubry > 87c) fully reflects the consensus of the spoiler community. This disconnect between price and casual discussion volume is a classic example of information asymmetry.