All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$500M
YesNo
$3B
YesNo
$1B
YesNo
$2B
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 02:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 12, 2026, with only ~9.5 months remaining until the hard deadline of Dec 31, 2026, the probability of 'No Launch' is rising exponentially due to time decay. Over the past week, prices for the $1B and $3B options have drifted lower (e.g., $1B dropping from ~12c to 4c), signaling collapsing market confidence. Current pricing reflects this theta burn rather than fundamentals. Even if a launch occurs, a delayed Cosmos-ecosystem project is unlikely to command a high FDV in the 2026 market environment. The current price inversion where $3B (2.1c) is higher than $2B (1.85c) indicates market inefficiency or illiquidity; fair value is near zero.
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Rule Risk
Moderate rule risk exists. 1. 'Launch' Definition: The requirement for the token to be 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable' could be contentious if Tabi only launches on a DEX with low liquidity or enables transfers without a major CEX listing. 2. FDV Calculation: FDV is defined as Total Supply * Price. As a Cosmos-based chain, Tabi may have an inflationary model where 'Total Supply' differs from 'Max Supply', or ambiguity between genesis supply and future emissions, which could affect the final calculation.
