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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Per the market rules, a 'Yes' outcome is strictly conditional on a pregnancy announcement occurring between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025. It is now March 18, 2026; this window has completely closed. Credible media sources and fact-checkers (e.g., Snopes) confirm no such announcement was made during this period, and rumors have been debunked. Thus, the event is deterministically 'No' in reality. The 'December 31, 2026' option trading at 19 cents represents extreme market inefficiency; its fair value is 0.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on the 'December 31, 2026' option
Plan Description:
This is a rare 'Free Lunch' opportunity in prediction markets. The resolution window (2025) has passed, and the outcome is deterministically 'No', yet the market prices 'Yes' at 19%. Buying 'No' at 0.81 offers a guaranteed payout of 1.00 upon resolution (expected late 2026 or earlier correction), netting 19 cents. The only risk is platform settlement delay, not the event outcome itself.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 19¢
|Annualized yield: 29.7%
Rule Risk
There is a significant temporal mismatch between the title and the rules. The title broadly asks 'Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?', but the rules strictly limit the resolution window to announcements made between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025. If she announces pregnancy in the first half of 2025, the market resolves to 'No' despite the title implying 'Yes', creating a major phrasing trap.
Movers
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the price for the 'December 31, 2026' option plummeted from 30.5c to 17.5c. This correction suggests the market is finally adjusting to the obvious mispricing, likely triggered by a realization that the '2025' window is closed, or the bursting of a speculative bubble driven by rule confusion.
Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, the price drifted slowly downward from 35.5c to 30.5c.
Divergence
Severe divergence exists. The real world (media, fact-checks, passage of time) has confirmed the event did not happen (0% probability), yet the prediction market implies a ~19% chance. This discrepancy is likely due to participants confusing the 'contract expiration date (2026)' with the 'event resolution window (2025)', leading to stranded dead capital.
