Recent market pricing indicates a significant upward shift in expectations for the highest temperatu...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of the 74-75°F option surged significantly from around 14c to a peak of 35c (settling at 30c), due to updated weather forecasts indicating higher-than-expected temperatures for March 27. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of the 76-77°F option climbed from approximately 11.5c to 29.5c, showing heavily strengthened market expectations for warmer conditions. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The 70-71°F option also saw volatility, rising from 11c to a high of 19.5c before retracting to 15.5c, reflecting forecast uncertainties.

Based on the latest 9-day weather forecast trends from the Hong Kong Observatory and approaching met...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 16.5c to 35c due to updated forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory predicting a significant temperature rise. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the '29°C or higher' option plummeted from 27.5c to 3.8c as approaching weather models ruled out the possibility of extreme heat. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the 24°C option dropped from 16.5c to 4.5c because the probability of a cold front was completely eliminated by updated forecasts.

Synthesizing the latest meteorological data, Wunderground (the resolution source) shows a warming tr...

March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option crashed from 17c to 6.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts converged tightly around the 21-22°C range, making a high of 24°C (~75°F) significantly less likely.

Recent weather forecasts indicate that Chicago will experience colder air on Friday, March 27, with ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '40-41°F' dropped from 29.5c to 18.5c and rebounded to 20.5c due to fluctuations in forecast models regarding the exact timing and intensity of the cold air. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plunged from 25c to 3.5c before recovering to 13.65c, reflecting shifting expectations regarding the cold front's arrival and the residual impact of a Thursday midnight high. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '52°F or higher' plummeted from 18c to 2.05c as weather models confirmed that Friday will be under the control of a cold air mass all day, eliminating the possibility of extreme highs.

According to the resolution source Wunderground's latest forecast, the high temperature for Miami In...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option rebounded from 26.5c to 41.5c, as traders anticipate daytime heating might push the actual airport recorded temperature slightly above the 81°F forecast. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, as the forecast window narrowed, extreme outcomes became less likely, causing '84-85°F' to drop from 27.5c to 12c, and '78-79°F' to fall from 26.5c to under 4c. March 22, 2026, 10:15 - 12:25, prices for '71°F or below' and '90°F or higher' spiked momentarily to 50c before crashing back to under 1c. This was likely due to a momentary liquidity void or a fat-finger trade error.

There is a slight divergence. The official resolution source (Wunderground) explicitly forecasts a high of 81°F, which falls perfectly into the 80-81°F bin. However, the prediction market places 82-83°F as the favorite at 41.5%. This indicates that traders are actively betting on the airport station's actual recording to overshoot the standard meteorological forecast.