Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracking site (xtracker.polymarket.com). The rules explicitly state that replies appearing on the main feed and deleted posts captured by the tracker will count. This can create discrepancies with manual counts on X, posing a resolution risk based on technical scraping logic.

Predicting the exact number of posts by a specific politician over a single week is very niche and trivial. It is a typical attention-driven novelty market that ordinary people rarely track or think about.

April 28, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple mutually exclusive options, including 40-59, 100-119, and 120-139, surged simultaneously to around 50c within hours. This was likely caused by a severe API tracker glitch or abnormal data updates, leading to market pricing chaos across multiple brackets and driving the total Yes probability above 200%. April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes price for 120-139 plummeted from 43.5c to 7.4c, while 80-99 also experienced heavy volatility, as updated actual posting data led the market to price out extremely high frequencies. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the Yes price for 140-159 plummeted from 38.5c to 19.5c, while 80-99 rose from 37.5c to 43c, as traders adjusted expectations away from ultra-high frequency toward middle ranges as the counting period approached. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the Yes price for 20-39 collapsed from 25.3c to 3c, as the market completely priced out the possibility of exceptionally low activity.