Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling and news for the Cornyn vs. Paxton runoff, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spreads and depth for specific margin options (e.g., 'Paxton 3-6%' vs 'Paxton 9%+'), and update the fair value assessment of the 'Paxton Landslide (>9%)' versus 'Tight Race (<3%)' scenarios by factoring in Texas runoff turnout projections.

AI-powered analysis for: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling and news for the Cornyn vs. Paxton runoff, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spreads and depth for specific margin options (e.g., 'Paxton 3-6%' vs 'Paxton 9%+'), and update the fair value assessment of the 'Paxton Landslide (>9%)' versus 'Tight Race (<3%)' scenarios by factoring in Texas runoff turnout projections.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the most recent runoff-specific polls from Texas-based institutions (e.g., University of Houston, Texas Lyceum) to compare the 'margin of victory' projected by likely voters against the Polymarket odds, specifically verifying if the data supports the wide margin options (9%+) or clusters around a narrow victory (<3%).

AI-powered analysis for: Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the most recent runoff-specific polls from Texas-based institutions (e.g., University of Houston, Texas Lyceum) to compare the 'margin of victory' projected by likely voters against the Polymarket odds, specifically verifying if the data supports the wide margin options (9%+) or clusters around a narrow victory (<3%).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historical Fractal Comparison: Search for the results of Ken Paxton's 2022 Primary Runoff against George P. Bush to analyze his historical performance jump from the primary to the runoff, and assess whether this 'runoff surge' pattern justifies a higher valuation for the 'Paxton 9%+' margin option in the current race against Cornyn.

AI-powered analysis for: Historical Fractal Comparison: Search for the results of Ken Paxton's 2022 Primary Runoff against George P. Bush to analyze his historical performance jump from the primary to the runoff, and assess whether this 'runoff surge' pattern justifies a higher valuation for the 'Paxton 9%+' margin option in the current race against Cornyn.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$8,195 Vol|

66 days 20 hrs

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Paxton 9%+

YesNo

5.95¢

94.05¢

15¢

85¢

+9¢

0¢

Cornyn 3–6%

YesNo

20¢

80¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+8¢

Paxton <3%

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+4.5¢

Cornyn 9%+

YesNo

15.5¢

84.5¢

20¢

80¢

+4.5¢

0¢

Cornyn <3%

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+3.5¢

Paxton 3–6%

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

11¢

89¢

0¢

+1.5¢

Cornyn 6–9%

YesNo

11¢

89¢

12¢

88¢

+1¢

0¢

Paxton 6–9%

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+0.5¢

AI Insights:

03.04 20:55 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market is fundamentally broken, with the sum of 'Yes' prices exceeding 300%, which is mathematic...

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Divergence

The primary divergence is mathematical. The market pricing implies a total probability of outcomes exceeding 300%, which contradicts reality. This is likely due to extreme illiquidity or broken market maker algorithms.

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory - AI Odds Analysis

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