All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 09:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 11, 2026, the probability of Tim Cook's departure is effectively zero. Cook is currently actively giving interviews (e.g., CBS) to promote Apple's upcoming 50th Anniversary on April 1st; resigning weeks before such a major milestone defies all business logic. Furthermore, top successor candidate John Ternus publicly dismissed succession rumors on March 5, and credible sources like Mark Gurman have noted that the 'early 2026' transition window (post-January earnings) suggested by earlier FT reports has passed without incident. Cook's re-election at the Feb 24 shareholder meeting further solidifies his position. Absent a severe health or legal 'black swan' event, the chance of a departure in the next 20 days is practically nil.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option_'No' (Low Risk Yield)
Plan Description:
Option_'No' is trading around 98.75c, offering a ~1.25% absolute return in under 20 days. Given that Tim Cook is actively promoting the company's 50th anniversary (April 1) and succession rumors have been explicitly denied by executives, this represents an extremely low-risk short-term yield opportunity (approx. 19.5% annualized). Only extreme force majeure events (e.g., sudden death) would threaten this position.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 19.5%
Hedging
AAPL
Nasdaq 100
If Tim Cook were to depart suddenly (especially if forced or unannounced), it would cause an extreme immediate shock to Apple's stock price (likely a sharp drop or high volatility), qualifying as a Score 5 'Structural Shock'. Given Apple's massive weighting in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, this volatility would directly transmit to the indices, making this a highly significant hedging event.
