Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.

High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.

Tucker Carlson is a well-known conservative political commentator. While there are occasional rumors or grassroots calls for him to run, it is not a mainstream expectation, making this market somewhat of a novelty and entertainment-focused.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, Jordan Bardella's price plunged from 81.5c to 68c, likely due to recent developments regarding his eligibility or political support increasing market anxiety. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, David Lisnard's price dropped from 71.5c to 61c, reflecting increased headwinds in securing sufficient political backing and signatures.

The rules explicitly require 'verbal interaction', excluding texts or letters. The main risk lies in the strict resolution deadline: if the specific date and time of the call cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 3 days after the timeframe, it resolves to 'No' even if confirmed later. Private calls may resolve as 'No' due to delayed reporting.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the Yes price for Mohammed bin Salman surged from 73c to 96.6c, likely due to new diplomatic reports hinting at an imminent call. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the Yes price for Friedrich Merz spiked from 43.5c to 73c, then fell back to 57.5c on May 7 and 47.5c on May 8, possibly related to German political developments or temporary rumors. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for Mohammed bin Salman surged from 40c to 76c. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for Mark Carney plunged from 62.5c to 40c.

May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026: The price of SV Elversberg surged from 68.6c to 85.75c, Hannover 96 surged from 42.5c to 66.5c, while SC Paderborn plummeted from 32c to 20c. This was due to the latest matchday results heavily favoring the first two teams while dealing a major blow to Paderborn's promotion hopes. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026: Hannover 96's price plummeted from 70.5c to 33.5c due to a critical match loss that caused a drop in their standings.