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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Laure Lavalette
YesNo
Jean-Michel Ghiotto
YesNo
Isaline Cornil
YesNo
Magali Brunel
YesNo
Michel Bonnus
YesNo
Josée Massi
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While RN candidate Lavalette led strongly in Round 1 with 42%, the math of the Second Round typically favors incumbent Massi. With the withdrawal/elimination of Bonnus (16%) and Left-wing candidates (~13%), the 'Republican Front' theoretically pools ~58% of the vote against the RN. However, Massi refused a formal 'List Fusion' with Bonnus, accepting only 'support without merger,' which creates significant vote transfer friction. Some of Bonnus's right-wing voters may abstain or defect to the RN due to political feuds. The market's recent correction from Massi 65c to 53c properly adjusts for this 'automatic transfer' over-optimism. Nevertheless, polling showing a 53-47% lead keeps Massi as the slight favorite; fair value is set at 58/42.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all options (Direct Arb).
Plan Description:
A significant risk-free arbitrage opportunity exists. The sum of all 'Yes' prices (Massi 53.5 + Lavalette 39.5 + others ~1.1) is approximately 94.1 cents. Buying 'Yes' on all options costs less than 100, and since one winner must payout 100, this locks in ~5.9 cents of risk-free profit. With only 3 days to expiration, the annualized yield is massive.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 6¢
|Annualized yield: 720%
Exotics
While a mayoral election is a standard political event, Toulon is a specific French city. For non-French or non-European political observers, this topic is relatively niche and lacks universal global attention.
Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Josée Massi's price dropped from 65.5c to 53.5c, while Laure Lavalette rebounded from 34.5c to 42c. The reason is that as the deadline for second-round lists passed, the market confirmed there was no formal 'List Fusion' between Massi and Bonnus, only loose support. This increases the risk of abstention or leakage among Bonnus (LR) voters, weakening the anti-RN front and causing Massi's win probability premium to retrace.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Josée Massi's price surged from 25c to 64c, and Laure Lavalette crashed from 73c to 28c. The cause was the post-Round 1 dynamic where, despite Lavalette's lead, third-place Bonnus (16%) withdrew to block the RN, transforming a 'Triangular' race into a 'Duel' highly unfavorable to the RN.
