All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
<40.0
YesNo
40.5–40.9
YesNo
40.0–40.4
YesNo
41.0–41.4
YesNo
42.0+
YesNo
41.5–41.9
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With less than 48 hours until the March 20 settlement, the smoothing effect of the Silver Bulletin moving average algorithm significantly constrains the volatility range. A strong market consensus has formed that the final result will land within the 40.0%-40.9% band (combined probability >85%). Given the current downward momentum and remaining time, '40.5-40.9' is the mathematically expected landing spot, as breaking below 40.5 would require a deluge of extreme low polls in a short window. However, '40.0-40.4' retains significant value as the primary hedge against last-minute data corrections or heavy weighting of outlier polls. High-end options (>41.0) are effectively zeroed out due to a lack of rebound momentum.
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Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the '40.5–40.9' option rallied strongly from ~31c to 47c. As the settlement window narrows, the mathematical path of the moving average has become clearer, with the market identifying this range as the most likely 'soft landing' zone, ruling out more volatile outcomes.
March 14, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the '<40.0' option continued its decline from ~20c to 7c. Although the general trend is downward, traders realized that the remaining days are insufficient for the smoothed algorithm curve to breach the 40% psychological threshold.
March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the '41.0–41.4' option crashed from 50c to 18c (and continued to bleed down to 11c in the following days). Consecutive downward polling data shattered the support logic for this range, causing the market to rapidly reprice a lower baseline.
