What is Donald Trump's exact approval rating on Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and the backup source RealClearPolitics right now, and how much does it need to shift by May 15 to move into an adjacent option bracket?

AI-powered analysis for: What is Donald Trump's exact approval rating on Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and the backup source RealClearPolitics right now, and how much does it need to shift by May 15 to move into an adjacent option bracket?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

With only 7 days until the May 15 resolution, what potential political events or economic data releases (catalysts) in the coming week could cause a sudden swing in Trump's approval rating large enough to cross a 0.5% bracket threshold?

AI-powered analysis for: With only 7 days until the May 15 resolution, what potential political events or economic data releases (catalysts) in the coming week could cause a sudden swing in Trump's approval rating large enough to cross a 0.5% bracket threshold?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume (around $10) in this market, how can I optimally place 'stink bids' across the 6 different approval rating brackets to capitalize on illiquidity and wide spreads for extreme bargain entries?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume (around $10) in this market, how can I optimally place 'stink bids' across the 6 different approval rating brackets to capitalize on illiquidity and wide spreads for extreme bargain entries?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Trump approval rating on May 15?

Politics|$12.5k Vol|

2 days 8 hrs

Trump approval rating on May 15? - AI Found +17.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 6 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+17.5¢

39.0–39.4(Yes)

+17¢

38.5–38.9(No)

+0.7¢

<38.0(No)

Trump approval rating on May 15? AI analysis: • +17.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 3 days until resolution, presidential approval rating polling aggregators typically s...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

39.0–39.4

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

35¢

65¢

+17.5¢

0¢

38.5–38.9

YesNo

72¢

28¢

55¢

45¢

0¢

+17¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 38.5–38.9 option rose from 42.5c to 56c, as the approaching resolution date stabilized the moving average, confirming this range as the most likely outcome. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the 39.0–39.4 option surged from 27.5c to 41c because recent polling data points slightly pushed the moving average upward, increasing the probability of this higher range. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the 38.0–38.4 option plummeted from 24.5c to 1.5c, as the rising moving average largely eliminated the possibility of falling back into this lower bracket. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the <38.0 option plummeted from 25c to 2.1c as the resolution date approaches and polls show no drastic drop. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the 39.5-39.9 option dropped from 24c to 7c, as the data stabilized in a lower range, reducing the likelihood of breaking 39.5. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the 40.0+ option plummeted from 25c to 1.8c because the market confirmed his approval rating is unlikely to surge above 40% in the short term.