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AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current simulated date is March 18, 2026, with less than 3 days remaining until the March 20 resolution. The primary driver—negative sentiment regarding 'Iran military action'—persists without any offsetting positive catalysts. Given the inherent lag in the Silver Bulletin polling aggregator, the negative sentiment from the past week is likely crystallizing into a numerical decline, making it highly probable that the March 20 rating will fall below the March 13 baseline. Consequently, the probability of a rebound triggering an 'Up' win is negligible (est. <5%). The option's remaining theoretical value is largely derived from the possibility of the rating remaining 'exactly the same' (triggering the 50-50 rule, paying 0.5) due to data stickiness. However, as the downward trend solidifies, the likelihood of a flat outcome is diminishing (est. 20-25%). Based on the expected value model (0.04*1 + 0.24*0.5 ≈ 0.16-0.17), the Fair Value is adjusted downward from 22 cents to 17 cents.
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