All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31, 2026
YesNo
June 30, 2026
YesNo
December 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.06 18:26 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the drastic price surge on March 5, 2026 (from ~19c to ~99c), the market has effectively confirmed a qualifying Cabinet member departure. In context, this likely resolves the uncertainty surrounding the resignation of CEA Chair Stephen Miran in early February. Although confidence had previously waned (dropping to 13c) due to 'Acting' status concerns or White House website delays, the March 5th action signals a decisive consensus that the departure qualifies, or that a new indisputable departure has occurred. Current prices of 97c+ reflect near-certain resolution.
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Rule Risk
Major timeline conflict exists. The options list three dates in 2026, implying a multiple-choice question about 'when' a departure will occur. However, the rule text explicitly states the market resolves to 'Yes' if a departure happens by 'December 31, 2025' and implies a binary Yes/No structure. This mismatch between options and rules creates significant resolution risk.
Movers
On March 5, 2026, the price for 'March 31, 2026' skyrocketed from 19c to 99c, with 'June 30, 2026' similarly jumping from 60c to 99c. The reason is the market's definitive confirmation that a Cabinet member's departure (likely the previously resigned CEA Chair Stephen Miran) qualifies under the rules, eliminating prior doubts caused by lagging official list updates.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price for 'March 31, 2026' rose from 38c to 44.5c, as the market began to price in the resignation of CEA Chair Stephen Miran, despite lingering uncertainty regarding his technical qualification.
