All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
65–68%
YesNo
<65%
YesNo
77–80%
YesNo
68–71%
YesNo
80%+
YesNo
71–74%
YesNo
74–77%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 21:45 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The 2026 Hungary election is highly competitive due to the rise of Péter Magyar (Tisza Party), paralleling the mobilization seen in Poland's 2023 election (which jumped from 61% to 74%). While the market prices in a massive surge, the 2022 baseline was 69.6% amidst high mobilization. Reaching 80%+ (a +10% jump) is statistically improbable given the dampening effect of mail-in voters on the total percentage. A 'Poland-style' surge places the fair value in the 72-76% range, making '74-77%' the likely favorite, while '80%+' is significantly overvalued.
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Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and historical feasibility. The market assigns a ~21.5% probability to '>80%' turnout, a figure extremely rare in non-mandatory voting systems (2022 was 69.6%). While media predicts a 'historic' election, the market is pricing in an extreme outlier scenario, likely ignoring the dilutive effect of mail-in ballots on the official total turnout rate.
