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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
60–65%
YesNo
65–70%
YesNo
70–75%
YesNo
<60%
YesNo
75%+
YesNo
AI Insights:
8 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The 2022 Slovenian parliamentary election saw a record turnout of 70.97%, driven by extreme polarization. The 2026 campaign remains described as 'brutal' and polarized (with Janša contesting early voting), suggesting mobilization will remain sticky rather than collapsing back to 2018 levels (52%). The market is overcrowding the '60–65%' bracket (implied ~53%), pricing in a massive 6-10 point drop from 2022. While incumbent disillusionment (Golob) may cause some drop, fierce opposition mobilization supports a milder regression to '65–70%' or even sticking in the '70–75%' range. Thus, the higher brackets are significantly undervalued.
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Exotics
This is a relatively niche geopolitical event. While elections are standard political activities, the specific turnout rate in Slovenia is not a mainstream focus in global prediction markets, placing it in a niche category.
Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the '60–65%' option surged from 26.5c to 54c, while '<60%' (crashed from 42.5c to 7.5c) and '75%+' (crashed from 28c to 6c) both collapsed. This indicates a violent 'reversion to the mean' correction, where traders realized that neither the record highs of 2022 (71%) nor the lows of 2018 (52%) were likely to be repeated. Capital panic-flooded into the historically common middle bracket (60-65%), doubling its price and potentially creating an overcrowded trade.
Divergence
Mainstream polls and media (e.g., Dnevnik, RTV SLO) report 'stated voting intention' as high as 72%, alongside high political tension during early voting, which typically signals high turnout. However, the prediction market heavily favors the '60–65%' bracket, implying a significant drop from 2022 (71%). The market pricing seems overly confident in a 'return to apathy,' ignoring signals that polarization could sustain turnout above 65%.
