All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Michael Olise
YesNo
Vinícius Júnior
YesNo
Dominik Szoboszlai
YesNo
Arda Güler
YesNo
Marcus Rashford
YesNo
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
YesNo
Leandro Trossard
YesNo
Antoine Griezmann
YesNo
Lamine Yamal
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 09:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 248% ($2.48), whereas the theoretical maximum probability is 100%. This implies that buying 'Yes' on the field guarantees a loss of over 60%. This presents a classic 'Short the Field' (Buy No) opportunity. Given the tie-breaker rule (alphabetical by last name), candidates like Griezmann have a slight premium value in tie scenarios. We have derived fair values by normalizing current prices (Current Price * 0.4).
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Rule Risk
There are two notable risks: 1. The tie-breaker rule is harsh and arbitrary. If UEFA does not define a sole leader, the winner is determined by 'alphabetical order of last name' rather than the standard 'Dead Heat' rule, disadvantaging players with names later in the alphabet. 2. The rules cite 'June 31, 2026', a non-existent date. While likely a typo for the end of June, such errors can lead to resolution disputes in edge cases.
Movers
2026-03-12 to 2026-03-15, prices for almost all major candidates except Michael Olise (Güler, Kvaratskhelia, Griezmann, Trossard, etc.) surged, with increases ranging from 13c to 15c (e.g., Arda Güler jumped from 16c to 30c). This indicates capital flowed out of Olise and was redistributed across the field, inflating prices for the entire cohort.
2026-03-11 to 2026-03-12, Michael Olise's price crashed from 60.5c to 33.5c. This suggests the previous clear favorite suffered an injury or a poor performance in a key match, causing market confidence to collapse.
Divergence
The market is significantly diverging from mathematical reality. Currently, 8 players are priced with implied probabilities between 18% and 30%, with a total sum exceeding 240%. Mainstream statistical models would not support such an '8-way tie' scenario this deep into the tournament. This pricing reflects extreme confusion and a speculative bubble following the collapse of the previous favorite (Olise).
