Sports|$28.1k Vol|
73 days 6 hrsUEFA Champions League: Most Player of the Match Awards - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Anthony Gordon
YesNo
Victor Osimhen
YesNo
Xavi Simons
YesNo
Fermín López
YesNo
Francisco Trincão
YesNo
Charles De Ketelaere
YesNo
Nuno Mendes
YesNo
Kylian Mbappé
YesNo
Virgil van Dijk
YesNo
Alexis Mac Allister
YesNo
Harry Kane
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 08:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the UCL Round of 16 First Leg results from March 10-11, 2026 (Source: UEFA), the market landscape has shifted decisively. Bayern Munich (6-1 vs Atalanta) and Real Madrid (3-0 vs Man City) have secured virtually guaranteed progression, ensuring Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé the maximum runway to accumulate POTM awards. While neither won POTM this week (Olise and Valverde did), they remain the clear frontrunners. Conversely, contenders like Foden (Man City lost 0-3), Cucurella (Chelsea lost 2-5), and De Ketelaere (Atalanta lost 1-6) are effectively eliminated. Crucially, Kane holds the 'Alphabetical Tie-breaker' advantage over Mbappé (K comes before M), justifying his premium valuation as the favorite. The current market pricing for effectively eliminated players (~15c) represents a massive bubble.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Charles De Ketelaere (Current 'Yes' price ~12c) or Marc Cucurella (Current 'Yes' price ~15c).
Plan Description:
This is a virtually risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Following the Round of 16 First Leg results, Atalanta lost 1-6 to Bayern Munich, and Chelsea lost 2-5 to PSG. Overcoming a 4-5 goal deficit in the second leg is historically unprecedented in the UCL. Despite this, the prediction market is still pricing Charles De Ketelaere (12c) and Marc Cucurella (15c) with implied probabilities of ~12-15%, which is completely detached from reality. Buying 'No' offers a mathematically dominant play, securing a ~12c profit per share on an outcome that is effectively decided.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 12¢
|Annualized yield: 63.4%
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, prices for Anthony Gordon (29c to 15c), Phil Foden (25c to 15c), and Marc Cucurella (24c to 14c) crashed. Reason: The UCL Round of 16 First Leg results were disastrous for their teams; Newcastle drew (with Barnes winning POTM), while Man City (0-3 vs Real Madrid) and Chelsea (2-5 vs PSG) suffered heavy defeats, decimating their chances.
March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Kylian Mbappé's price surged from 31c to 41c. Reason: Real Madrid's dominant 3-0 victory over Man City not only secured their path forward but also effectively eliminated a key rival (Foden), consolidating Mbappé's position as a favorite.
Divergence
There is significant market lag and irrational pricing. Despite Atalanta (1-6), Chelsea (2-5), and Man City (0-3) suffering nearly insurmountable defeats in the first leg, and mainstream sports analytics (like Opta implied probabilities) giving them near-zero chance of progression, Polymarket still prices their players (De Ketelaere, Cucurella, Foden) at 12c-15c. This pricing implies a >10% probability of them winning the cumulative POTM award, which drastically diverges from the sporting reality.
