UEFA Champions League: Most Yellow Cards
Soccer|$162.6k Vol|
time27 days 20 hrs

UEFA Champions League: Most Yellow Cards - AI Found 671.0% APY

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.29 07:56
Top Undervalued
+29.7¢
Mikel Merino(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
147¢
Arbitrage
671%
Annualized yield

UEFA Champions League: Most Yellow Cards AI analysis: • +29.7¢ undervalued • 671.0% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on all 5 options. Total cost is 253c. Since at most 1 player can win, at least 4 options will resolve to 'No', yielding a guaranteed minimum payout of 400c. Plan Description: This is a classic negative arbitrage (sum of mutually exclusive Yes > 1) opportunity. Buying 1 'No' ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is experiencing severe irrational overvaluation, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices reachin...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Culture|$2.2m Vol|
time5 days 12 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.4¢
120-139(No)
+2.5¢
220-239(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the tracking period continues, based on Musk's actual tweet data from the first day, the market h...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.
Movers
April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily climbed from 5.5c to 17c, and '140-159' surged from 2.3c to 10.85c. This is because first-day tracking data showed a lower posting frequency than initial aggressive estimates, prompting traders to revise their median projections downwards. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, multiple high-frequency options experienced steep declines. The price of '260-279' plummeted from 39.5c to 5.5c, '240-259' dropped from 30c to 10.5c, and '220-239' fell from 30.5c to 14.5c. This was due to significant previous overpricing or speculation; as the tracking period approached, traders re-evaluated Musk's realistic posting frequency, leading to mass sell-offs and a reversion to the mean.
AI Analysis
"Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office
Culture|$20.4k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

"Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+63¢
3-3.5m(No)
+19.7¢
>4m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing (with a significant premium in the sum of Yes prices), after prob...
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Movers
April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, all options experienced extreme volatility. For example, '>4m' crashed from 50c to 5.5c, '<2m' wildly swung between 48c and 6c, and '2.5-3m' fluctuated between 6c and 52c despite remaining the favorite. This was caused by chaotic presale updates right before the opening weekend and low market liquidity driving erratic expectation shifts. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price for '3-3.5m' dropped significantly from a high of 54.5c to 37.5c. The '2-2.5m' option climbed from 9.5c to 34.5c before settling at 29c. The '2.5-3m' option saw wild volatility (dropping from 52c to 6c, then rebounding to 35.5c). The reason is that as the opening weekend approaches, final theater counts and presale data confirmed extremely weak demand, causing a broad downward correction in market expectations.
AI Analysis
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Politics|$19.1k Vol|
time5 days 12 hrs

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+18¢
100-119(No)
+13¢
140-159(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Donald Trump posts very frequently on Truth Social, typically averaging between 15 and 25 posts and ...
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Rule Risk
Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). The rules contain edge cases regarding 'replies' (counted if recorded on the main feed) and 'deleted posts' (counted if they survive ~5 mins). This creates a risk of divergence between the tracker's captured data and manual counts on the platform.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of social media posts by a specific public figure on a specific platform in a given week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market. The general public rarely considers or tracks such granular details.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, prices for almost all options plummeted (e.g., '100-119' dropped from 48c to 22c, '200+' from 48.5c to 5.15c). The reason is that uncalibrated initial liquidity upon market creation pushed all 'Yes' options to roughly 40-50c, which were subsequently corrected by traders pricing in realistic weekly posting volumes.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Munich on May 4?
Weather|$14.9k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in Munich on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+28¢
26°C or higher(No)
+16.5¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current date is May 2, 2026, and the resolution date, May 4, is only 2 days away. Weather foreca...
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Exotics
Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche prediction market. While weather derivatives exist in traditional financial markets, it is not a mainstream topic of daily conversation for the general public.
AI Analysis
New Mexico Governor Election Winner
Elections|$21.1k Vol|
time183 days 20 hrs

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+3¢
Democrat(Yes)
+0.5¢
Republican(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
New Mexico, a reliably blue state (Cook PVI D+3), exhibits a strong structural advantage for Democra...
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AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Mikel Merino
YesNo
49.65¢
50.35¢
20¢
80¢
+29.7¢
Konrad Laimer
YesNo
48¢
52¢
20¢
80¢
+28¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, Declan Rice's price surged from 31c to 49.5c, Kim Min-Jae's price from 33c to 50c, and Konrad Laimer's price from 33.5c to 50c. This was caused by extreme irrational buying pushing up the prices of all top options simultaneously, creating a massive arbitrage window. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, Kim Min-Jae's price crashed from 45.5c to 33c, and Konrad Laimer's price crashed from 47c to 33.5c, likely due to other players catching up or surpassing them in yellow cards during recent matches, leading to a market correction of their frontrunner status. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Lamine Yamal's price crashed from 39.2c to 0.05c, likely because his team was eliminated from the UCL or the player became unavailable to accumulate more yellow cards. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Lamine Yamal's price surged from 13.7c to 45.65c, likely due to yellow card accumulation in a recent UCL knockout match or an influx of irrational momentum buying. March 16, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the market entered a high-level consolidation phase. Kim Min-Jae (+4.5c) and Mikel Merino (+5.7c) saw price increases, but no option triggered the 10c volatility threshold. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, prices for Rice, Merino, Kim, Laimer, and Zubimendi surged collectively by 10-15 cents, driven by panic buying during UCL knockout matches. March 4, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Declan Rice's price briefly spiked from 16c to 36c before retracing.

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