All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Martín Zubimendi
YesNo
Declan Rice
YesNo
Mikel Merino
YesNo
Konrad Laimer
YesNo
Kim Min-Jae
YesNo
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
YesNo
Lamine Yamal
YesNo
Micky van de Ven
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 09:19 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in an extreme 'super bubble,' with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching approximately 256%, severely violating the basic mathematical rule that probabilities in a single-winner event must sum to 100%. This indicates a massive overvaluation of all candidates by market participants. Carreras, holding the tie-breaker advantage (surname Fernández appears early alphabetically) and the current lead (4 cards), deserves the highest valuation but is still overpriced. The pricing of trailing players like Rice, Merino, Kim, and Laimer (3 cards) in the 35c-40c range is absurd; their fair values must be significantly discounted to fit within the 100% probability constraint.
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Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, prices for Rice, Merino, Kim, Laimer, and Zubimendi surged collectively by 10-15 cents (e.g., Rice from 21c to 39c, Merino from 5c to 39c). Reason: UCL knockout matches occurred, and these players' teams (Arsenal, Bayern, Sociedad) likely advanced or the players received bookings, triggering panic buying and further inflating the price bubble.
March 4, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Declan Rice's price briefly spiked from 16c to 36c before retracing, indicating the market's recurring overreaction to booking events.
Divergence
Extremely significant mathematical divergence. The market pricing implies that 5 different players each have a >35% probability of winning, which is mathematically impossible (Sum > 175% just for these five). Mainstream data models would provide a probability distribution summing to 100% based on remaining matches and booking rates, whereas current Polymarket prices are completely detached from fundamentals.
