All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)
YesNo
Tottenham Hotspur
YesNo
Arsenal
YesNo
Real Madrid
YesNo
Bayern München
YesNo
Sporting CP
YesNo
Galatasaray
YesNo
Barcelona
YesNo
Newcastle
YesNo
Atlético Madrid
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
Atalanta
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 16:24 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The aggregate 'Yes' price of the market stands at ~618%, far exceeding the mathematical limit of 400% (as there are only 4 semifinal spots). This massive premium indicates severe market inefficiency or over-optimism. Fair values are derived by normalizing the current price distribution so that the sum of probabilities equals the mathematically correct 400%. The extremely low valuations for Man City (14c) and Real Madrid (12c) suggest they are in precarious positions in their current knockout ties (e.g., trailing significantly after a first leg).
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Divergence
The core divergence lies between the market pricing (aggregate probability of 618%) and mathematical reality (aggregate probability of 400%). This 'dumb money' effect is common in multi-outcome tournament prediction markets, where retail traders overbuy 'Yes' on favorites, inflating the total implied probability and creating an arbitrage opportunity for 'No' buyers.
