All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Atlético Madrid
YesNo
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
Bayern München
YesNo
Barcelona
YesNo
Galatasaray
YesNo
Sporting CP
YesNo
Tottenham Hotspur
YesNo
Newcastle United
YesNo
Arsenal
YesNo
Atalanta
YesNo
Real Madrid
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.09 15:41 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is situated just before the 2025-26 UCL Round of 16 (starting March 10). The pricing is severely inefficient, with the sum of implied probabilities exceeding 700% (theoretical max is 200%). Based on bookmaker odds and simulation models, Arsenal (the favorite with ~28% win probability) is the only option priced near fair value (~50% to reach final). Others, particularly Man City and Real Madrid (who face each other in R16) and underdogs like Bodø/Glimt, are massively overpriced. Fair values are normalized based on team strength and bracket difficulty.
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Divergence
Market prices are completely divorced from reality. Mainstream consensus places Bodø/Glimt as a massive underdog (2500/1 odds), implying <1% chance to reach the final, yet the market prices them at 30 cents (30%). Similarly, the market implies a ~50% chance for almost every major team (Spurs, City, Real, Bayern) simultaneously, which is mathematically impossible as the sum exceeds 200%.
