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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Cher Ndour
YesNo
Pep Chavarría
YesNo
Pere Pons Riera
YesNo
Tornike Morchiladze
YesNo
Ray Kendry Páez Andrade
YesNo
Petros Mantalos
YesNo
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
YesNo
Răzvan Gabriel Marin
YesNo
Dejan Petrovič
YesNo
Darko Hrka
YesNo
Borna Sosa
YesNo
Nikolas Veratschnig
YesNo
Guéla Maho Lewis Doué
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:39 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits extreme liquidity distortion or pricing errors. The sum of 'Yes' prices currently exceeds 600%, whereas a single-winner market should theoretically sum to 100%. Although Guéla Doué's price surge suggests he may have recently received a red card or taken the statistical lead, a win probability exceeding 70% is irrational given there are two months left and many competitors. The vast majority of players priced at 48 cents likely have true win probabilities in the single digits.
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Exotics
This is a relatively niche sports derivative market. Firstly, the UEFA Conference League has lower visibility than the Champions League. Secondly, predicting the player with the 'most cards' over a full season involves extreme randomness (dependent on team progression, referee strictness, and injuries), and the options list consists mostly of non-superstar players, making it a deep sports data speculation.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026: Guéla Maho Lewis Doué's price surged from 48.5c to 73.5c, a 25c increase. This is likely because the player received a red card or accumulated yellow cards in a recent Conference League match, establishing a significant lead on the disciplinary chart.
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026: The market experienced a collective price hike, with most players moving uniformly from the 43c-44c range to around 48c, indicating a systemic anomaly in the pricing mechanism or a market maker adjustment.
February 28, 2026: Early snapshots showed abnormal clustering in the 40c-43c range, setting the foundation for the current extreme pricing.
Divergence
Polymarket prices diverge severely from mathematical logic and real-world probabilities. In reality, it is impossible for over 10 players to simultaneously have a near 50% probability of winning a single 'Most Cards' title. Mainstream sports data models would typically price the leader of such a long-tail market at around 20-30%, with chasers at 5-10%. The current prediction market prices reflect extreme market failure.
