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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Tornike Morchiladze
YesNo
Nikolas Veratschnig
YesNo
Alexandre Penetra
YesNo
Pep Chavarría
YesNo
Joseph Mbong
YesNo
Borna Sosa
YesNo
Artemijus Tutyškinas
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 11:48 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Joseph Mbong holds 2 red cards. Crucially, the 'alphabetical tie-breaker' rule favors him (Mbong) against most high-priced competitors (Penetra, Sosa, Tutyškinas, Veratschnig, and even Morchiladze, as 'Mo' comes after 'Mb'). This implies these rivals would need an improbable 3 red cards to win, a statistical rarity (<1%). The only listed option who wins a 2-card tie-breaker against Mbong is Pep Chavarría (C comes before M). The market is severely mispricing Penetra/Veratschnig/Morchiladze (~37c), ignoring the tie-breaker logic and effectively pricing them as if they only need 2 cards to win.
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Rule Risk
While the definition of red cards is clear (direct or two yellows), the tie-breaker rule is arbitrary: first by UEFA official rules, then by 'alphabetical order of the last name'. This alphabetical resolution is completely unrelated to sporting performance and introduces significant randomness. Furthermore, disputes over the official spelling or transliteration of players' last names could create resolution risks.
Exotics
This is a highly niche statistical market. Compared to predicting the champion or top scorer, forecasting 'most red cards' is an obscure edge case. Red cards are rare and highly situational events; predicting which specific player will accumulate the most involves a massive amount of luck, making this a typical exotic novelty market.
Movers
From March 14, 2026 to March 17, 2026, Joseph Mbong's price surged from 44c to 55c. The reason is likely the market waking up to the decaying time remaining in the tournament; as matches conclude, the probability of rivals achieving the necessary 3 red cards to overtake him shrinks, solidifying Mbong's lead.
Divergence
There is a massive divergence. The market prices imply a ~37-38% win probability for Penetra, Veratschnig, and Morchiladze. This is mathematically absurd as it requires them to achieve a historic 3 red cards in a single season (since they all lose the 2-card tie-breaker to Mbong). Rational statistical analysis places their true value near 0.
